WaPo: OH-15 and OH-16 ranked 2nd and 5th districts most likely to flip

In his most recent edition of The Line, Washington Post political reporter Chris Cillizza ranked the 10 House seats most likely to switch parties in 2008. Not surprisingly for those of us who have been watching the congressional map develop, Ohio has a prominent place on the list. First, OH-16:

5. Ohio's 16th District (R): Rep. Ralph Regula's retirement, while expected, creates major problems for Republicans. Democrats were already high on their candidate -- state Sen. John Boccieri -- and got even more so following Regula's retirement. For good reason: Boccieri has a compelling personal story (he's a major in the Air Force Reserves) and raised $274,000 in the last three months. Republicans seem headed for a primary, and it's not clear that the GOP brand in Ohio has recovered from the devastating blow it took in 2006. (Previous ranking: N/A)

Cillizza's analysis is pretty good on this race. The uncertainty on the Republican side certainly benefits Boccieri. However, I wouldn't be too quick to discount Kirk Schuring's potential. After all, his state senate district covers most of Stark County, the population center of the 16th Congressional District. Still, at this point it is advantage Boccieri.

2. Ohio's 15th District (R): Another month and no Republican candidate has emerged in the open-seat race to replace retiring Rep. Deborah Pryce. Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy, who lost to Pryce by just 1,000 votes last year, showed $384,000 on hand at the end of September. Momentum is all with Democrats here; the longer Republicans go without a serious candidate the more likely it is that they eventually cede this seat to Kilroy. (Previous ranking: 2)

This race maintained the same ranking as it achieved a month ago, and the analysis is dead on. Personally, I think this race should be ranked #1. The Post ranks CA-4 above it for the simple reason that Rep. John Doolittle is shaping up to be the Bob Ney of 2008. However, Doolittle is facing serious primary challengers and likely will be indicted in the near future. If, by some miracle, Doolittle isn't in jail and survives his primary, it might be justified to put him in the number one spot. However, that is a huge if, and Cillizza as good as admits it in his analysis of CA-4. Personally, I think Mary Jo, with her cash on hand, no credibile opponent, and her general momentum has earned her place at the top of the list. But maybe I'm a little biased...