Sometimes a blind squirrel gets a nut
Submitted by modernesquire on Fri, 07/18/2008 - 9:23am.
Like Tim Russo (in part for different reasons), I have a very low opinion of DailyKos, and particularly Kos himself. I normally read it only to get my blood boiling over the nonsense that gets front paged while really good diaries get ignored.
This post yesterday got very little attention, but I think it's absolutely one of the most insightful posts on geopolitical intrastate strategy for a presidential campaign. It's also the best explanation as to why the "Southern Ohio is racist, and therefore should be ignored" meme is utter nonsense.
Why did the Republicans win statewide in Ohio during the 1990s? Because their Democratic opponents had only limited appeal to the major metropolitian areas in northern Ohio which was offset by Republican strengths in SWO and the poor showing of Democratic candidate is SEO, even though that region has several local Democratic officials.
Why did we do so well in 2006? In part the political environment, but we finally ran a candidate with an established and significant political base outside the Cleveland-Akron-Canton-Youngstown region who had appeal to rural voters.
Why did Hillary Clinton win Ohio's primary? Because Obama's overwhelming support in large metropolitian areas were offset by Clinton's strong support in SEO (thanks to the focused campaigning efforts and public support of Governor Ted Strickland in SEO) and her support in other rural areas.
Obama cannot win Ohio if tries to run up the score in Ohio's metropolitian areas. If he stops McCain, he stops him in Southern Ohio, a region that has been neglected and ignored by this Administration. Obama cannot on one hand say he can be competitive in red areas of Virginia, but that he cannot be competitive in purple areas like Souther Ohio.
Whether you think Obama "needs" Ohio or not (the anti-Ohio bias from DailyKos and other national Obama netroots supporters is just bizarre and misguided), Obama needs Ohio for no other reason that McCain cannot win without it. And if Obama isn't going to stop McCain in Cincinnati, Columbus, Dayton, Toledo, or Cleveland. He needs to, at a minimum, keep McCain from running away with places like Chillicothe, Portsmouth, Athens, Ironton, and Marietta.
This is a region where retail politics, not media buys, are most influential. The geography and lack of infrastructure requires a significant time investment to cover. However, it's an investment that could pay dividends. John Kerry couldn't make himself appear credible to Southern Ohio voters. That's why he lost Ohio and Bush was re-elected.
Drop the elitism and wake up people. We can win the whole thing, but only if we treat Appalachian voters as a serious voting demographic that deserves respect and attention.
Nicole, did I say the Obama campaign had an elitist attitude
Submitted by modernesquire on Fri, 07/18/2008 - 7:16pm.
No, I did not. I meant the Obama supporting bloggers who discounted Obama's poor showing in southern Ohio as the result of uneducated racist hicks rather than the fact that Clinton concentrated her campaign there while Obama was nowhere to be seen (his only field operation was in Athens for the entire region). And the elitist bloggers who think Obama can win without OH, PA, or FL.
John Kerry campaigned in Southern Ohio. Ted Strickland and the Democratic ticket campaigned in Butler and Warren County (the heart of Ohio GOP country.) Barack Obama, to date, has not. Spare me about knocking on doors that have never been knocked on until he knocks in southern Ohio.
I would think a diary about people unsuccessfully trying to get the Obama campaign to spend some effort in their region also negates that.
I agree with the premise,
Submitted by BenKeeler on Fri, 07/18/2008 - 4:48pm.
I agree with the premise, but I would exclude Athens. Since 1972 Athens has gone with the Democrat every year but 1984 - when no one did.
The Point at the Akron Beacon Journal
Athens
Submitted by Nifty Lawrence on Fri, 07/18/2008 - 4:52pm.
BenKeeler made the point before I got a chance:
Athens County is reliably Democrat for presidential elections the past several elections. No county in Ohio gave Kerry a bigger margin of victory in 2004, other than Cuyahoga.
And I have a feeling Obama might be just a little popular down there.
I am one who really enjoys DKos, so we're not on the same page
Submitted by OH 09 Dem on Fri, 07/18/2008 - 6:43pm.
with that. In addition, while you may make a few valid points in the diary as a whole, you make many inaccurate statements. First of all, you ask how did Hillary Clinton win Ohio. Consider that OH-10 (Where Dennis! represents) and is obviously a very Democratic CD went to Hillary by a huge margin. Same with OH-17 (Tim Ryan) and OH-13 (Betty Sutton) OH-09 (Marcy Kaptur) need I go on? Hillary won in very Democratic CD's in the primary. It is extremely disingenuous, or at least misguided to attribute Obama's primary loss to "concentration" on the reliably Democratic Northern Ohio. In fact, Obama did best in OH-01, OH-03, OH-04, OH-15 (besides OH-11) which are all in the south. Kerry ran up a HUGE margin in Athens, and I am confused as where you are trying to go with that. Now that we have that out of the way, do you not understand that Obama has 300 field organizers on the ground? Did you also know that this is more than ANY OTHER STATE IN THE COUNTRY??? Where are these people? Places like Sandusky, Bowling Green, Findlay, Fremont, Ashland, Mansfield, Lima, etc., etc. It is a fallacy to think that Democrats need to run a Strickland like campaign to win in Ohio. That won't happen. But they can run a Sherrod Brown campaign, and they can run a Howard Metzenbaum campaign. Oh, and by the way, Sherrod is exactly from the area that you believe had nothing to do with our success in 2006. That is exactly what Obama is going to do. Obama is not going to get Democratic votes in OH-06 or OH-02 that Hillary would have gotten. But he is going to get Kerry level votes or more out of OH-11, OH-12, OH-09, OH-13, OH-17, and he is going to run up the score in Columbus and Dayton, and actually win Hamilton County for once. Couple that with limiting our losses elsewhere and that spells victory.
Get your facts straight
Submitted by modernesquire on Fri, 07/18/2008 - 7:32pm.
Obama carried a whopping five out of eighty-eight counties in all of Ohio. They were all the major metropolitian counties. Find any Congressional District where Hillary Clinton did as well as Obama than Ohio's Sixth Congressional District (which covers most of the Appalachian region). I didn't say that Obama's appeal was concentrated in Northern Ohio. What I said was the failed strategy of the 1990s was to have a Democrat run, normally from Northern Ohio, who had appeal to the Cleveland
Sherrod Brown campaigned with Ted in Southern Ohio. And credits Ted's broad regional appeal to helping him win. Sherrod Brown ran on trade, DeWine, and a unified campaign that fought in every county. He did not, as you suggested, run a Howard Metzenbaum campaign. Not at all.
I did not say that Northern Ohio had "nothing to do" with our success in 2006. What I said was that there's a history of strategic failure by Democrats who think they can run up the score in NEO and the metropolitian areas and ride out getting whomped in rural areas.
OH-06 is a Democratic congressional district. Why the hell couldn't he win it? That's the whole point of the dairy.
Yours is the strategy of failure that plagued us in the 1990s and almost made us lose our major party legal status in 1994.
This is what I mean by elitism. We don't need those hicks from southern Ohio. We can win this with city voters.
Yeah, too bad, that's never worked. Remember Robert Burch in 1994? Joel Hyatt? You're essentially describing the strategy of the Obama campaign in the primary.
It failed miserably among even Democratic voters. By a million votes. When the old strategy doesn't work and instead hurts you, stop doing it. Then do something that's worked.
I don't want to say I told you so after the election day. I want Obama to win. So why are you so opposed to Obama to fight for every county, every vote?
I don't have my facts straight
Submitted by OH 09 Dem on Fri, 07/18/2008 - 7:57pm.
because you decided not to address any of the factual arguments that I made? Instead you simply decided to amplify your rant. There is nothing Obama can do to get the racist southern hicks to vote for him. And there is no question that Obama must do better than Kerry in the regions where we lose. We can't afford to lose by the margins that Kerry lost by in the--count them 74 counties that Kerry lost. Do you know the four largest deficit counties that Kerry had in 2004? Butler, Clermont, Warren, and Delaware. These are the exact counties where Obama's crossover strength is going to be. I'm not arguing for the 1990's strategy at all. What I am saying is that you view Obama's strategy through that prism and that isn't anything close to what the actual strategy is. I honestly feel that we are going to flip 4 CD's this election. I think that we'll finally have Democrats in OH-01, OH-02, OH-15, OH-16. Do you think that Obama's not going to over-perform commenserately in those districts? Doesn't that spell victory? Did you see the recent Chabot internal that had Obama up +7 in OH-01? Kerry lost that district by 2. Instead of sniping back and forth, I just wish you knew more about the way Obama is running Ohio, and it isn't how you think. No amount of time or money is going to win us Scioto County however. I guess we will see.
I addressed every point
Submitted by modernesquire on Fri, 07/18/2008 - 11:48pm.
And destroyed them... And you prove just how elitist you are by calling Southern Ohio voters as "racist southern hicks.
Obama has a much better chance of winning counties in Southern Ohio than he ever does winning Butler or Warren County. How do I know that? Because I grew up in Southern Ohio and now live and work in Warren County. And he won't win in Clermont County, either. From a strict political demographic standpoint, Obama has a much better chance of winning or being competitive in Southern Ohio than those counties. I'll give you that he has a real shot at winning Hamilton County, though.
Chabot's poll, which you cited, by the way, suggested that support for Obama didn't translate into success for Driehaus. In fact, quite the opposite. Don't cherry pick your data.
Obama will not outperform in OH-02. Write that down. Of course Obama will do well in OH-15, it's one of the five counties he carried in the primary. So, I'll give you half of the districts you listed, but that's about as far.
By the way, Clinton didn't win every Congressional district currently held by a Democrat. Check out Stephanie Tubb Jones' district results.
Oh, and do explain how Obama is going to do better in John Boehner's district, but cannot compete in the Sixth and Eighteenth District, both of which are currently held by Democrats?
You flew off the handle by falsely accusing me of accusing the Obama campaign of the elitism I was accusing you of. You talked about how Obama is going to all areas where Democrats don't go (patently untrue in Ohio), and yet excuse Obama's non-appearance in an area which is a purple region which has been trending Democratic.
You know Paul Hackett? You know how close Vic Wulsin came to win, too? Yeah, that's because of their performance in Southern Ohio. The very counties this DailyKos diary and I are saying the Obama campaign would be making a serious mistake to neglect.
One last comment
Submitted by OH 09 Dem on Sun, 07/20/2008 - 10:13am.
Because I don't want to go back and forth on the disconnection you have between your perception and reality. Did you know that Obama's campaign manager is none other than Aaron Pickrell? Yea, he was Strickland's 2006 campaign manager and took leave from the Governor to run Obama's Ohio campaign. Do you think that he doesn't know what you are "talking" about? Or how about the fact that his state field director is Jackie Bray, who just so happened to be Hillary's primary field director? It was no accident that these people were chosen. I bet you either didn't know that, or once again, don't care about facts.
Hillary won alot of Republican Congressional Districts, too
Submitted by modernesquire on Fri, 07/18/2008 - 7:35pm.
That's why happens when you win 83 of the 88 counties because you didn't focus your efforts on a Northern Ohio/Metropolitian strategy.
By the way...
Submitted by OH 09 Dem on Fri, 07/18/2008 - 6:47pm.
I thought this was very telling. Do you know what the Obama field staff mantra for Ohio is? "If you don't want to come to Ohio you must not like America." Do you know why that is? Field staffers, of course, can ask to go to many states in the country. And it isn't infrequent when people from NYC, or Philadelphia, or D.C., or Chicago, or wherever react negatively to the notice that they are needed and being sent to Ohio (especially rural or small town Ohio consistent with Obama's strategy for Ohio). And you know what the response is?...... see above.
So that's why...
Submitted by Tom Smith on Sat, 07/19/2008 - 10:18pm.
Obama is sending 400 field coordinators to Ohio? McCain is outspending Obama on TV, but Obama is putting more of his effort into his field organization. While it is true that Clinton put more effort than Obama did into winning Ohio, Obama was concentrating his resources on Texas, where he wound up winning more delegates out of that state's convoluted delegate selection plan.
By the way, it should be noted that Obama has field organizers in places where Kerry didn't even try four years ago, such as Delaware County and other exurban areas where Bush ran up the score four years ago.
Sounds to me like the Obama campaign is doing exactly what
Submitted by BuckeyeNation on Wed, 07/23/2008 - 12:08pm.
modernesquire is claiming they aren't doing.
Here's an e-mail I received from the Obama campaign yesterday:
Last night in Butler County, nearly 200 people turned out to open the doors of our first official Campaign for Change office in Middletown, Ohio.
Four years ago, George W. Bush won that county by a huge 2-to-1 margin. But with the strength of our grassroots movement -- active in every county, precinct, and block of the Buckeye State -- we know this year will be different.
From Cincinnati to Cleveland, Williams County to Washington County, this campaign is working with all Ohioans as we build the movement that will help carry Barack to victory in November and win elections up and down the ballot.
Over the next week, we're kicking off our general election efforts with at least 19 Campaign for Change Office Openings across Ohio.
Find an Office Opening near you and help grow our movement for change:
http://oh.barackobama.com/OHopening
Your local office is the perfect place to get started in your community.
Campaign for Change staff and volunteers are working together across the state to grow our movement for change. The best way to get involved is to visit an office.
Together, we will continue building this movement.
We'll be opening more offices in the weeks and months ahead, but this is our first big push of the general election.
No previous experience is necessary to get involved. All you need is a hunger for change and a willingness to turn your enthusiasm into action.
Join us this week at an Office Opening near you:
http://oh.barackobama.com/OHopening
Since I first started working on Barack Obama's campaign 17 months ago, I've seen how our supporters across the country have proven the power of grassroots organizing. I am honored to be here working with you as the campaign's General Election Director in Ohio.
Thanks,
Jeremy
Jeremy Bird
Ohio General Election Director
Campaign for Change
P.S. -- Here is a photo from last night's office opening in Middletown. Check it out, and then sign up to visit an office near you:
Where's modernesquire?
Sigh...
Submitted by modernesquire on Fri, 08/22/2008 - 11:33pm.
Did I say this ISN'T what Obama is doing? No, what I said is that what Obama SHOULD do. And apparently later did. Sounds like with the hire of Strickland's campaign aides for his Ohio operation, Obama is doing EXACTLY what I advocated he should do, and yet was attacked for "not knowing what I'm talking about." Sometimes you guys get so obsessed with arguing with a former Clinton supporter, you forget what they actually said, and then after breathlessly arguing how he's nuts, you then chide him when Obama does exactly what the Clinton supporter suggested that you've been calling nuts.
That's what I kept trying to say
Submitted by OH 09 Dem on Thu, 07/24/2008 - 4:20pm.
Thanks for the back-up BuckeyeNation. Oh, and to make modernesquire even happier, check out the fact that there are offices opening up in Chilicothe, Athens, New Philadelphia, and Zanesville, replete with attendance of Governor Strickland!
http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/ohoffices
There are your facts jack!
Huh...
Submitted by modernesquire on Fri, 08/22/2008 - 11:28pm.
I write a post about Obama can't win if he tries to amp turnout solely in the urban areas but needs to do what Clinton did and campaign in SEO. I'm then berated about a bunch of people I already knew worked on Governor Strickland's campaign as if I didn't. I'm told I don't know what I'm talking about. Then, buried in the comments, well after I wrote the post, is all this evidence of Obama doing EXACTLY WHAT I ADVOCATED HIM TO DO that people said I was crazy, and I'm mocked for being so wrong?? Yeah, that makes sense. I feel so burned.
Do you even know what the Obama campaign is doing?