Rasmussen Poll Shows Portman Ahead By 4: More Evidence The Race Is Tied
The Dispatch (R-Columbus) is reporting that a Rasmussen poll on the Ohio Senate race has Rob Portman up by 4 on Lee Fisher.
This is more evidence that the race is tied as far as I’m concerned. How can I say that? Because Nate Silver, the mathematical whiz kid who runs FiveThirtyEight.com is assigning Rasmussen a GOP leaning “House Effect” of 4.5 points for polls done thus far in 2010. So, if a generic Rasmussen poll puts a GOPer up 4.5 points, but Portman is only up 4 points, basically that means that this poll has Fisher ahead by about a half a point. The race is essentially tied.
Of course, after Ohioans learn more about how Rob Portman was Bush’s trade advisor and budget director, I don’t expect the race will stay tied long after that.
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