Ohio's "Super Delegate" Invisible Primary Update


Administrator - Posted on 01 February 2008

Update from BSB's projections of where Ohio's 21 Superdelegates will fall. You can find a list of each of Ohio's Superdelegates here combined with commentary on who they're expected to break for in the Presidential election. What follows is an update to that list:

Charlie Wilson, OH-6 Congressman
Sources close to the Congressman have suggested the chances of him supporting Hillary Clinton - while another Democratic candidate is still in the race for the presidency - is slim to none. The usual arguments were presented (Wilson's a Bluedog, pro-life, etc.) to show that he believes his Congressional District is too conservative for Clinton (a point I don't readily buy). Still, other evidence was presented, such as the fact that the Congressman has avoided Clinton for President DC meetings, while he has expressed interest in Obama's DC meetings. All of these facts cause BSB to change it's prognosis for Congressman Wilson from "toss up" to "lean Obama." However, it was noted that Congressman Wilson is intent on refraining from an endorsement prior to Ohio's March Primary.
BSB prognosis: "Lean Obama"

Tim Ryan, OH-17 Congressman
Lots of chatter about Congressman Ryan has popped up lately, including a supposed preference. However, sources strongly suggest he will remain uncommitted through the Ohio Primary.
BSB prognosis remains: "Toss Up"

That changes our new Superdelegate count for the state from Clinton 8, Obama 3, toss up 9, to:

Clinton: 8
Obama: 4
Tossup: 8

Also, a commenter on the last post that runs the illustrious 2008 Democratic Convention Watch Blog suggeste that the missing 21st Ohio Superdelegate is Minority Leader Joyce Beatty. I'm checking with the Beatty camp to see if this is correct, because if so, it would add another expected Superdelegate to Obama's camp. The Ohio Legislative Black Caucus, of which Beatty is a member, endorsed Obama earlier this month.

I would like to add here I'm surprised that I had to find out who the 21st delegate was from another fellow blogger. For the past three weeks I've been trying to get the name out of the Ohio Democratic Party, and they still had not provided it when the suggestion of Beatty was made. That sort of unresponsiveness from the party irritates me pretty badly...sign of lack of organization or stonewalling. 

 

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