Ohio's "Super Delegate" Invisible Primary
Obama agrees, we're in a race for delegates at this point. Nearly every other commenter nationwide is saying the same thing too. Folks are talking about the proportional delegate division system, and who gets what, blah blah blah. And in the periphery vision of everyone paying attention to this wild ride is the question of who gets the 796 superdelegates.
Superdelegates of course are Congresscritters, Governors and party leaders. And folks are giving this whole backdoor jostling a name: "The Invisible Primary"
In Ohio we've got 162 delegates up for grabs. Of those, 141 are "pledged," meaning they'll be tied to a candidate in one way or another depending on how March 5th primary goes. But that leaves 21 delegate slots open from the Ohio convention. Since every delegate vote could have an immense impact on how the nomination process goes, who are these mysterious Ohio delegates and who are they going to vote for? Good question.
Welcome to the Ohio backdoor primary.
Every Ohio Congressman gets a vote at the convention. So where will our Congressional Delegation land? Here's BSB first of many roundups leading up to the March Primary and the convention
I. Ohio Congressional/Gubernatorial Delegate
OH-6: Charlie Wilson
No endorsement yet. BSB prognosis: "Toss Up"
OH-9: Marcy Kaptur
No endorsement yet. Sources suggest Clinton lean. However, she might see similarities between her first Congressional bid and Obama's outside candidacy. BSB Prognosis: "Toss Up"
OH-10: Dennis Kucinich
May vote for self. Will not endorse Clinton. Urged supporters to choose Obama as second choice in Nevada. Toss up between self/Obama. BSB prognosis: "Lean Obama"
OH-11: Stephanie Tubbs Jones
(Vote doesn't count in congressional delegation, instead goes to DNC delegation)
OH-13: Betty Sutton
No endorsement yet. Sources suggest Clinton lean. BSB prognosis: "Lean Clinton"
OH-17: Tim Ryan
Endorsed Dodd early on. No endorsement in contest yet. Lean unknown. BSB prognosis: "toss up"
OH-18: Zack Space
No endorsement. Could potentially be hurt in Congressional race with Clinton at top of ticket. BSB prognosis "Lean Obama"Senator Sherrod Brown
Sherrod has said repeatedly to the press he will remain neutral in this race. Still, things change. Sherrod's office in the Dirksen Senate building is right next to Hillary's, so they've developed a relationship already in the Senate. Still, the Clinton's past history on trade has to leave a sour taste in Sherrod's mouth. That alone could swing him to the Obama camp. BSB prognosis: "Toss up"
Governor Strickland
Endorsed Clinton in December. BSB prognosis: "CLINTON"
II. 11 Unpledged DNC Ohio Committee Members.
These folks get a vote at the convention too.
Chris Redfern, ODP Chairman
Wouldn't you like to know where the chairman's at. I sure would. Redfern's into the power, and he's being careful not to give any signs of impropriety. Plan on him to hold his support out as long as possible, unless he can get something mighty fine for it. I believe 'Fernsy leans Edwards though. BSB prognosis: "Toss Up"
Rhine McLin, ODP Vice Chair, Dayton Mayor
Team Clinton took care of Rhine back in her early days, going so far as to send Terry McAuliffe in to Dayton in the 90's to catapult her into her Mayoral seat. She knows she owes a debt to the Clintonistas, one in which they'd like paid in full now. The Clinton's have been courting McLin via phone contact since early last year. However, her father, the late State Senator C.J. McLin is one of the fathers of the Ohio Congressional Black Caucus and a monumental figure in Ohio and African American politics. No doubt this history ways on McLin as she struggles between Obama and Clinton. This rating might be the most volatile of all of the Ohio SuperDelegates. BSB prognosis: "Lean Clinton...ever so slightly"
Ron Malone, Formerly of OAPSE
Former Ohio Director of AFSCME United before the big split. AFSCME has been bussing folks all over to support Clintons Ohio campaign. The national AFSCME has also endorsed Clinton. Now at OAPSE, Malone is looking out for Ohio education workers. Clinton has the backing of other unions involved with public schools, expect at the very least Malone to follow suit. Malone's ready to have Bill back. BSB prognosis: "CLINTON"
Bill Burga, Former President Ohio AFL-CIO
Like Ron Malone and the rest of Ohio labor, Burga has strong ties to the Clintonistas having helped carry the state for Bill in '92 and '96. Expect Burga to stay with his friends, unless something big changes. BSB prognosis: "Lean Clinton"
Sonny Nardi, Ohio Teamster "Drive" Campaign
I have little to no information on Nardi's leanings. Those in the know, please help me out here - confidentiality guaranteed. BSB prognosis: "Toss Up"Mark Mallory, Mayor of Cincinnati
Mayor of the 'Nati. Mallory has been heavily recruited by both Team Clinton and Obama. He's suggested an endorsement is coming soon. BSB sources have suggested Mallory leans Obama. BSB prognosis: "Lean Obama"Stephanie Tubbs Jones, DNC Delegate and OH-10 Congresswoman
On board with Team Clinton for months serving in a national leadership role. BSB prognosis: "CLINTON"Pat Moss, Retired President of AFSCME Council 8
As mentioned previously, AFSCME has had a strong presence in supporting Hillary's Ohio campaign already (notably bussing Clinton supporters to the OH-15 pre-primary caucus). Currently I expect Moss to break for Team Clinton. BSB prognosis: "Lean Clinton"Enid Goubeaux, Darke County Democratic Party Chair
Enid was a Clinton delegate all the way back during the '96 campaign. The ties to the Clinton camp run deep here. Expect this one to stay with the longtime favorite. BSB prognosis: "Lean Clinton"??????, At-Large Member of the DNC from Ohio
There is an At-Large member of the DNC from Ohio whose identity I have been unable to locate. I'm still waiting for word back on the party on who this might be. When I've identified them, the tallies will be updated. BSB prognosis: "Toss Up"
III. Redfern's Lackeys
Ohio's delegation rules also permit party chair Chris Redern to add-on two unpledged delegates of his choice. Expect these folks to break for whichever candidate Redfern supports. Also, if Redfern remains uncommitted past their May appointment, they could be a good window into who he leans to support.
Redfern Lacker #1
BSB prognosis: "Toss Up"Redfern Lackey #2
BSB prognosis: "Toss Up"
IV. Totals
As of January 28th, the Buckeye State Blog predicts Ohio's Super Delegates will break*:
Clinton: 8
Obama: 3
Toss Up: 9
*We're missing one delegate from this tally. I've contacted ODP to try and find where that missing delegate is at.
Did I write about you here? Don't like what I had to say? Drop me a line and tell me why you do or do not lean for someone else.
.... no zinger, I mean it!
Thanks for organizing all that info into one place~
Every district sends one alternate except the 4th and the 8th, which have no alternates. Look for a lot of attention to be paid to the districts with an odd number of delegates since the winner of that district gets the extra delegate. Also, if a candidate is in the 55%-60% range in the districts with six or eight delegates, look for them to play hard there, since if a candidate gets more than 58.33% in a district with six delegates (CD 9, CD 10, CD 13 and CD 14), or 56.25% in a district with eight delegates (CD 11), they get an extra delegate. In districts with four delegates, the third delegate gets awarded to a candidate with over 62.5% of the vote, whereas the fourth delegate is awarded in districts with five delegates to candidates who get over 70%, and the fifth delegate is awarded to candidates who pull over 64.29% of the vote in districts with seven delegates. All of this assumes there are only two people in the race.