OH-Sen: Show Me The Money! [CORRECTED]
Well both of the Democratic Senate campaigns decided to roll out some fundraising numbers, and their largely what we expected.
First out of the box came Lee Fisher, reporting over $900,000 raised last quarter. Soon after came Brunner, with over $435,000 $228,000.
So who wins? I’d have to say Brunner. While her haul wasn’t nearly as big as Fisher’s, the trends are on her side. She’s raising more cash, while Fisher missed his previous mark. Probably more important, right now we’re all focused on what role Fisher’s campaign played in pushing the negative story about Brunner’s son.
Fisher may have the cash, but it’s going to be really hard to capitalize on it.
Correction: As noted in the comments, I mistakenly reported Brunner's total fundraising number instead of just what she raised last quarter. Sorry for any inconvenience.
Fisher will need to raise $2 million plus, to even have a chance.
[UPDATE] Republican Rob Portman raised $1.7 million for his U.S. Senate campaign during the second quarter of 2009 - more money than both his Democratic rivals combined.
The 2010 "off" election, is going to be decided by independent voters, undecided voters and women voters.
1. Brunner will cause Lee Fisher to use funds just to get the nomination from ODP, which is smart on her part. The question is, will the ODP recognize that Brunner is more progressive and will do better at the grassroots level and run a better online campaign, where independent, undecided voter get their information.
2. Lee Fisher is an established losing statewide candidate.
a) The more the economy declines the more Fisher's donations and support will dwindle. Large donors will begin to realize contributing to Fisher's campaign is foolish (which partly accounts for why his family members have given first and the most)
b) Because of the economy, contributions to Republican's will increase and Fisher will receive "token" contributions from supporters hedging their bets. Unless the economy improves Democrats have little chance of gaining offices in 2010. Democrats could potentially lose offices, as they lose influence (such as Kevin Boyce for Treasure). During a budget crisis, Kevin is vulnerable because of the perception that he has Ohio's checkbook. Ohio's budget concerns could hurt Kevin Boyce for Treasurer in the long run. Boyce hasn't "officially" announced (probably because he has no money, less than $10K) Meantime, Josh Mendel has released a $20+ 6 minute video for his announcement. Currently, Ohio Dems are losing!
3. Lee is campaigning for a Senate seat held by a successful, established Republican George Voinovich. Who had the fortune of being in the Gov.'s office during the lowest unemployment in Ohio in 25 years. Voters are not going to send an unsuccessful Democrat to replace a successful Republican and send another Democrat Senator to Washington when Democrats can't even run Ohio.
4. Obama/Democrats are slipping in the polls
5. Strickland (Fisher's boss) is slipping in the Ohio polls and continues to be portrayed by the media as incompetent. Gambling issue, losing NCR.
6. Ohio unemployment is over 11% on the Democrats watch. Read the "Broader unemployment rate" that is more like 18%.
7. Cinematographer Jason Zone-Fisher and his leaked documentary "The Lee fisher Gun Show" isn't/didn't help Candidate Lee Fisher. It demonstrates poor judgment on Lee's part to think it was a good idea to appear on camera shirtless in his sweat pants at 1 AM.
8. Little to no Support from the DNC. Obama will not assist Ted Strickland or Lee Fisher. The best they can hope for is a visit from Joe Bidden (who is an idiot and will make some huge gaffe that will hurt more than help) Strickland didn't support Obama, he supported Hillary and Obama and the DNC won't assist in any meaningful way. The only assistance will come from opportunistic professional campaigners that only care to collect a consultation fee and really don't care if Fisher or Strickland win. Fishers campaign is displaying focused stratigizing, which is the only thing giving him an edge. Once Fisher's campaign finances start running out, so will the high paid campaign DC consultants. And true to form, Fisher has hired some campaign staff losers of his own.
Brunner running grassroots, influencing independent voters, undecided voters and women voters, has the best hope of winning.
Now, the actual facts. While Fisher hemmed and hawed about running, Brunner was the FIRST to announce her intention to run. So, it's hard for her to be blamed for a lack of unity when it was Fisher who came late to the party.
Grousing and complaints about JBru is sowing seeds of division in the party? From who? I know that's the Fisher's campaign communication strategy by ramping up their negative attacks on her. But I've seen no actual evidence of people blaming BRUNNER for the divisiveness. However, I have seen quite a bit of evidence to suggest that people are upset with Fisher's apparently attempt to engage in divisive tactic by getting his friend in the media to hound Brunner's family over trivial and long-resolved tax matters.
How dare a highly qualified woman like Jennifer Brunner aspire for higher office? Such a misogynistic attack that NOBODY is buying.
Lee could have been the first to announce, he could have brought all these endorsements out the gate almost immediately after Voinovich announced he was retiring (many of the endorsements Fisher is "announcing" were folks who were already known to be publicly supporting him, like Cincinnati Mayor Mark Mallory.)
Brunner's gaining momentum as Fisher's fundraising wanes. She's on track to raise over a $1 million this year alone, more than enough for her to run a competitive primary.
Um, we already control the State House under the Republican drawn districts. And do you really think no Democrat can hold onto that seat but Brunner?
Get new arguments as to why Brunner shouldn't be running. These arguments are tired and worn out.
$435K vs. 228K? Does it really even matter? Fisher's now raised 4x as much as Brunner & we're still a little less than a year away from the primary. Plus he continues to rack up important endorsements from the rest of the Democratic establishment, while Brunner picks up zero of the same.
The Fat Lady is warming up.
(Standard disclaimer - I don't like Fisher & won't be voting for him)
-Brunner supporter
I'm just as guilty of this as anyone else, but other than write that you support Brunner, what have you done to support her?
Have you donated to her campaign, held one of the Brunner BBQ fundraisers they encouraged, solicited friends and family to get involved with the campaign? Because we're waiting around for Brunner to do all of this and already you're saying that since she can't do it on her own (no campaign ever has), oh well....
Fisher's fundraising advantage is overstated. A large chunk of that money you're including cannot legally be used in the general election.
Second, Fisher does not have an advantage in statewide name recognition. Look at the latest Quinny poll. 53% of Ohio registered voters say they don't know enough about Lee to say whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of him; Brunner's at 56%-- a statistical tie on the name recognition question. Despite 20 years of public service and four prior state-wide campaigns for office, most Ohioans don't know who Lee Fisher is as a candidate. That... is... jaw... dropping.
I'm donating (again) to the Brunner campaign and I'm going to clear my schedule to start doing some offline support for Brunner. Bandwidth alone is not enough to get her elected.
People are not engaged in this election yet, the candidates are in a virtual dead heat among primary voters, and either canidate is still positioned to beat Portman. This campaign is only four months old and it's still the preseason folks. This is as insane as predicting who's going to win the Super Bowl after watching the teams in mini-camp!
Brian,
You make a good point about coming out to support Brunner, but do you think that many people are playing a wait- and-see game until we get closer to the election or until the ODP endorses a candidate?
I concur it isn't too soon to start supporting Brunner!
It is sad that a politican with 20 years experience and 4 state wide campaigns, recieves polling responses that state "don't know enough about Lee Fisher." that is very sad.
She will have over 1 million in the bank in January.
Fisher may out raise her, but Lee is stuck with his personality and his inability to win elections. Brunner will be competitive with Fisher over the airwaves, and her record, versus Lee's lack of one worth talking about, will resonante on TV. Fisher's TV will remind Dem voters why they've had doubts about him.
Jennifer Brunner has turned around a state office in 2 years that was once an international laughingstock.
Lee will never mention what his job was the past two years.
As the best candidate, Brunner will win every debate against Lee.
She will then win the Democratic primary and defeat Rob W. Portman in the fall.
And uh, Jennifer Brunner made Ohio an exemplar for the 2008 election.
Get it?
A far cry from Blackwell's tin-foil hat brigade and their "accomplishments"at the SOS office before Brunner had to come in, clean up and straighten it out.
I agree with most of Dion's comments, except that from my perspective I don't agree that Voinovich was a successful governor.
Voinovich came into the governor's office denouncing the Ohio workers' compensation system as "the silent killer of jobs." But as a Feb. 4, 2007 editorial in the Cleveland Plain Dealer points out, his administration's "cure" for the system consisted of allowing "politically connected managed care organizations and third-party administrators to feast at the expense of injured workers and their employers." The result has been, as the editorial also states, that "the cure has itself become a silent killer of jobs."
One of the clearest examples of that is the group-rating program the Voinovich administration set up at the Bureau of Workers' Compensation. The program allows employers to join employer groups to receive discounted premiums based on the claims experience of all employers in a group. Although that concept is in itself good, the discounts were set at such unreasonably high levels that employers who were removed from groups saw their premiums skyrocket by 1,000% or more, causing many to go out of business. (Unless they were politically connected or threatened to go to the media, and thus received secret and illegal fixes on their premiums. But that's another story.)
According to BWC's own statistics, the group-rating program has caused thousands of Ohio employers to go out of business each year. Although the program's unreasonably high discounts are inconsistent with insurance principles, they were set at those levels to enrich the group sponsors and third-party administrators who market the groups to employers. Undoubtedly, those special interests returned the favor by giving big campaign contributions to the politicians who allowed this infernal cash-cow to be established and continue.
Such problems in the workers' comp system have significantly contributed to Ohio's dire economic climate and the state's horrendous budget situation. But no one seems to be talking about that connection nowadays. Possibly the silence is because both parties are raking in campaign contributions from the special interests making huge amounts of money off the current unfair and irrational system.
And, of course, Marc Dann is no longer around to expose the workers' comp corruption, and no one has stepped in to fill the vacuum. Certainly not Lee Fisher, who never seemed interested in addressing this workers' comp problem when he was development director.
Voinovich was defintely a terrible Gov.
The Tom Noe situation was born under his watch.
Now, his state director, Beth Hansen is Kasich's campaign manager (according to someone high up in the would be gov's campaign - although both of us were admittedly three sheets to the wind when I was told about this - LOL) Doesn't Sen. Voino know its illegal for Fed employees to work on campaigns? I tried emailing Thomas Seward (the only person listed on the Kasich site) but received no answer as to who the campaign manager is. Very bizarre.