OH-5: You Speculatin' Son Of A Gun You!

As prayers and well wishes continue to go out to the Gillmor family, speculation begins regarding what type of representation the good people of Ohio's 5th District will receive in the coming days, and subsequent years. Paul Gillmor served his District since 1988, and regardless of whether folks agreed with him or not, he was widely regarded as an institution and his shoes are large to fill. While I'll continue to post information that comes my way regarding opportunities for the public to pay their respects to Mr. Gillmor, it is appropriate to begin to discuss what will happen with the folks and District he's left for greener pastures.

This is just a preliminary list of folks whose interests correspond to the Fifth District, and if folks out there know of others that should be on this list, please send those names my way at jerid@buckeyestateblog.com .

Republican Bench

Bob Latta

Meet State Rep. Bob Latta, son of former OH-5 Representative Del Latta. In 1988 when Bob's old man retired from office, his son Bob was the likely heir. However, then state Rep. came and knocked Bob off his privleged ass to take the seat from him by no less than 27 votes. And the rest is history...while Congressman Gillmor has stewarded the interests of his District for the last 25+ years, Bob's been delegated back to Columbus and the Ohio Statehouse, rotating Senate and Representative terms with Republican Randy Gardner. Conventional guesswork suggests that Bob would be the likely heir to the Republican nomination this day...however, I'm sure Randy Gardner has a few things to say about that.

Randy Gardner

Always the bridesmaid, never the bride. Meet Senator Randy Gardner. Like his friend Bob, Randy is term limited this cycle and is preparing to do his annual musical chairs dance over to the Rep. side. Randy has been around the Statehouse since 1985, and hails from Bowling Green for both his Masters and B.A. I doubt Randy will let Bob have all the fun to himself.

Karen Gillmor

And then there's Karen, Paul's wife. Karen's served as the Vice Chair of the Ohio State Employment Relations Board since her appointment there by then Governor Voinovich in 1997 (and subsequently re-appointed by then Governor Taft in 2003 to a term ending in 2009). Prior to that she served two terms as an Ohio State Senator. Karen's always had a huge hand in Paul's work, and if she's up to it, will be courted as a possible challenger.

And of course, before we get too far along with ourselves here...our thoughts go out to Karen in this difficult time for her.

The Big Q?

Insert Random GOP County Commissioner Here

Admittedly, the GOP bench is deep and broad in the 5th. Plenty of Commissioners or municipal officers might have an interest in taking this moment to make their big play. Which little GOP'ers out there want to be supa' stars?

Democratic Field

Robin Weirauch

On the Democratic side, annual candidate Robin Weirauch is already in the race. While not formally announced, BSB broke the news a couple months ago that she was hiring. Robin is the Assistant Director for Regional Development at Bowling Green State University. Weirauch lives with her husband Paul, a 21 year veteran of the police force, in Napoleon Ohio.

In 2004, Robin's first shot at OH-5, she recorded a disappointing 32.95% of the vote. Robin did significantly poorer than John Kerry in 2004, as the top of the Democratic ticket scored 39% in OH-5 leaving Robin with a little over a 6% deficit. However, in 2006 Weirauch shocked politico's across the state by logging 43.15% to Gillmor's 56.85% - a 10.20% increase in her vote in a two year span.

The real test for Robin will be whether she can line up endorsements and donors prior to mid-October to legitimize her candidacy in the eyes of many that have dismissed her before.

Chris Redfern

Ah yes, where would we be with a discussion of potential candidates for OH-5 without mention of Mr. "Ball of Steel" himself, 'Fernsy, the party's lovable chairman. Recently I called up the party and spoke with folks in Columbus. Of course they took a hard line with me, refusing to speculate on which parties might step forward in OH-5 as we all continue to mourn for Mr. Gillmor. However, pressing them further, I asked If I should expect an announcement press release from Chris next week, or the week following. At first my contact blew me off, but then later acknowledged the Chris Redfern had told folks at the ODP he was not interested in Congress. Pressing even further, I later got Todd Hoffman, ODP Online Comm. Director on the phone, and he went on record stating that "Chris is not interested in a run for Congress."

Whether or not he's interested in OH-5 is up for debate. However, Chris Redfern is most definitely interested in Congress - as conventional wisdom around the state speculating way before he even took over the ODP Chairmansip stated that Redfern is awaiting Marcy Kaptur's retirement in OH-9 (the same District he shares with his State Rep. seat out of Catawba Island). I'm inclined to believe that Chris will continue to wait, as Governor Strickland would most likely not tolerate the Democratic Party's Chair engaged in a contentious House election going into 2008. Let me stress, Redfern's name came up in discussions with multiple Columbus insiders.

And that leaves the Democrats with????

Your guess is as good as mine. Depending on party affiliation (which I couldn't find no matter how hard I dug), Bowling Green Mayor John Quinn could be a potential name tossed around. Regardless, Democrats should look for challengers in the District's most populated Wood County in the north. While the district does appear to be trending "D," Dems do have history against their backs as a donkey hasn't captured the district since Frank Kniffin's 1936 victory. But of course, times are a changing. Currently word circulating is that a the Governor will likely set an election date for November.

...And as mentioned previously, we'll keep folks apprised of any developments regarding services that are open to the public for folks of the District to pay their respects to their former legislator, Paul Gillmor.