OH-5: You Speculatin' Son Of A Gun You!
Submitted by Jerid on Thu, 09/06/2007 - 1:29pm.
As prayers and well wishes continue to go out to the Gillmor family, speculation begins regarding what type of representation the good people of Ohio's 5th District will receive in the coming days, and subsequent years. Paul Gillmor served his District since 1988, and regardless of whether folks agreed with him or not, he was widely regarded as an institution and his shoes are large to fill. While I'll continue to post information that comes my way regarding opportunities for the public to pay their respects to Mr. Gillmor, it is appropriate to begin to discuss what will happen with the folks and District he's left for greener pastures.
This is just a preliminary list of folks whose interests correspond to the Fifth District, and if folks out there know of others that should be on this list, please send those names my way at jerid@buckeyestateblog.com .
Republican Bench
Bob Latta
Meet State Rep. Bob Latta, son of former OH-5 Representative Del Latta. In 1988 when Bob's old man retired from office, his son Bob was the likely heir. However, then state Rep. came and knocked Bob off his privleged ass to take the seat from him by no less than 27 votes. And the rest is history...while Congressman Gillmor has stewarded the interests of his District for the last 25+ years, Bob's been delegated back to Columbus and the Ohio Statehouse, rotating Senate and Representative terms with Republican Randy Gardner. Conventional guesswork suggests that Bob would be the likely heir to the Republican nomination this day...however, I'm sure Randy Gardner has a few things to say about that.
Randy Gardner
Always the bridesmaid, never the bride. Meet Senator Randy Gardner. Like his friend Bob, Randy is term limited this cycle and is preparing to do his annual musical chairs dance over to the Rep. side. Randy has been around the Statehouse since 1985, and hails from Bowling Green for both his Masters and B.A. I doubt Randy will let Bob have all the fun to himself.
Karen Gillmor
And then there's Karen, Paul's wife. Karen's served as the Vice Chair of the Ohio State Employment Relations Board since her appointment there by then Governor Voinovich in 1997 (and subsequently re-appointed by then Governor Taft in 2003 to a term ending in 2009). Prior to that she served two terms as an Ohio State Senator. Karen's always had a huge hand in Paul's work, and if she's up to it, will be courted as a possible challenger.
And of course, before we get too far along with ourselves here...our thoughts go out to Karen in this difficult time for her.
The Big Q?
Insert Random GOP County Commissioner Here
Admittedly, the GOP bench is deep and broad in the 5th. Plenty of Commissioners or municipal officers might have an interest in taking this moment to make their big play. Which little GOP'ers out there want to be supa' stars?
Democratic Field
Robin Weirauch
On the Democratic side, annual candidate Robin Weirauch is already in the race. While not formally announced, BSB broke the news a couple months ago that she was hiring. Robin is the Assistant Director for Regional Development at Bowling Green State University. Weirauch lives with her husband Paul, a 21 year veteran of the police force, in Napoleon Ohio.
In 2004, Robin's first shot at OH-5, she recorded a disappointing 32.95% of the vote. Robin did significantly poorer than John Kerry in 2004, as the top of the Democratic ticket scored 39% in OH-5 leaving Robin with a little over a 6% deficit. However, in 2006 Weirauch shocked politico's across the state by logging 43.15% to Gillmor's 56.85% - a 10.20% increase in her vote in a two year span.
The real test for Robin will be whether she can line up endorsements and donors prior to mid-October to legitimize her candidacy in the eyes of many that have dismissed her before.
Chris Redfern
Ah yes, where would we be with a discussion of potential candidates for OH-5 without mention of Mr. "Ball of Steel" himself, 'Fernsy, the party's lovable chairman. Recently I called up the party and spoke with folks in Columbus. Of course they took a hard line with me, refusing to speculate on which parties might step forward in OH-5 as we all continue to mourn for Mr. Gillmor. However, pressing them further, I asked If I should expect an announcement press release from Chris next week, or the week following. At first my contact blew me off, but then later acknowledged the Chris Redfern had told folks at the ODP he was not interested in Congress. Pressing even further, I later got Todd Hoffman, ODP Online Comm. Director on the phone, and he went on record stating that "Chris is not interested in a run for Congress."
Whether or not he's interested in OH-5 is up for debate. However, Chris Redfern is most definitely interested in Congress - as conventional wisdom around the state speculating way before he even took over the ODP Chairmansip stated that Redfern is awaiting Marcy Kaptur's retirement in OH-9 (the same District he shares with his State Rep. seat out of Catawba Island). I'm inclined to believe that Chris will continue to wait, as Governor Strickland would most likely not tolerate the Democratic Party's Chair engaged in a contentious House election going into 2008. Let me stress, Redfern's name came up in discussions with multiple Columbus insiders.
And that leaves the Democrats with????
Your guess is as good as mine. Depending on party affiliation (which I couldn't find no matter how hard I dug), Bowling Green Mayor John Quinn could be a potential name tossed around. Regardless, Democrats should look for challengers in the District's most populated Wood County in the north. While the district does appear to be trending "D," Dems do have history against their backs as a donkey hasn't captured the district since Frank Kniffin's 1936 victory. But of course, times are a changing. Currently word circulating is that a the Governor will likely set an election date for November.
...And as mentioned previously, we'll keep folks apprised of any developments regarding services that are open to the public for folks of the District to pay their respects to their former legislator, Paul Gillmor.
???
Submitted by Ryan on Thu, 09/06/2007 - 2:36pm.
What do you mean by annual candidate? That sounds like some sort of dig...
No dig
Submitted by Jerid on Thu, 09/06/2007 - 2:38pm.
But three cycles in a row definitely makes you an "annual."
Fine
Submitted by Paul (not verified) on Thu, 09/06/2007 - 2:39pm.
Then you try it. Of course it was a dig.
Why Not?
Submitted by Paul (not verified) on Thu, 09/06/2007 - 2:46pm.
And was Ted Strickland an "annual" candidate when he won his race for OH-06 on his fourth try?
OH-5
Submitted by Anonymous on Thu, 09/06/2007 - 3:33pm.
John Quinn is an "R." As long as we're wildly speculating, how about Jim Sherck - another annual candidate who ran against Latta the elder. He's since been elected a court of appeals judge, retired and gone back to the Common Pleas Bench in Sandusky County.
Fer Crying Out Loud Paul
Submitted by Jerid on Thu, 09/06/2007 - 4:25pm.
In Ted's '76-'80 string he sure was bordering on an annual - however, like Robin's incentive to run again, Ted had reason for his '80 bid too with Harsha's retirement. But as you quickly gloss over just to try and prove your point... Ted took a seat and came back 10 years later in '90 as a different candidate. But that said, I'm sure no one's an "annual" candidate in your eyes. Charlie Sanders? Four time nominee in the 2nd? Nah, he's all good, not an annual either.
Robin's got a shot, but like I said, she's going to have to convince folks she's got a 100% legit shot this go around (and we are all ears. Bring out the endorsements. Bring out the donors. Yeehaw). In four years running for Congress, she raised less than $200k. Folks know that you need a sizeable chest larger than that to make an impact. She's going to have to convince them it's not like every other year. Pardon me for being honest.
And before the two of you jump on my back for stating the obvious next time, why don't you disclose when you're batting for your clients.
Sorry Jerid ...
Submitted by Paul (not verified) on Thu, 09/06/2007 - 5:53pm.
But I haven't spoken with Robin since May of 2005, two months before LCS was formed.
And don't you have something better to do like post yet another picture of yourself?
Sheesh.
Someone Call the Waaaaaaaaaahmbulance
Submitted by Jerid on Thu, 09/06/2007 - 6:18pm.
Paul's crying again.
(PS. Great rebuttal to my point Paul)
The Point
Submitted by Paul (not verified) on Thu, 09/06/2007 - 7:11pm.
Is that you disrepsected a candidate who has been working very hard to affect change here in Ohio and you got called on it and you're used to fawning adoration and don't like criticism. She didn't deserve the dig and you should apologize for it.
It's just like it is in the US Senate, Jerid. There are workhorses and showhorses.
Robin, Ted and yes even Charlie Sanders have been workhorses here in Ohio. Yes, Charlie ran a number of times, and although I have never met the man, I respect him for trying. If someone better had come along during those races and beat him in a primary (as eventually did happen) then that person would have carried the banner into the general election.
Try to show candidates some respect Jerid. Put down the mirror and look outward sometimes.
Woodguy speaks well and probably has more of a tolerance for self-important puffery than do I.
Earth to Paul
Submitted by Jerid on Thu, 09/06/2007 - 8:24pm.
She's an annual candidate. I'm not backing down there; you can eat it.
Can an annual candidate, such as Robin Weirauch, win this District? Maybe. But it's tougher than coming to the race fresh and with a bunch of juice and name rec. If you fail to see that, maybe you should consider making your livelihood in a new business. But then again, I'm just a snot nosed kid with throngs of adoring fans (ha) all over, too busy playing with a mirror, who has no idea what the hell I'm talking about. Point blank, she's got a lot of work ahead of her and she'll have to do things differently than the past if she wants to win in OH-5.
Lose the self importance and anger Paul and come back down to reality. Godbless Robin for working her ass off in that district, and thanks to all candidates that work tireless in difficult districts (maybe just maybe I've got a little bit of perspective on that one Pauly, eh?)... But if you want to win elections you're going to have to be realistic too.
Try to address my points instead of just clawing at my eyes wildly in your response.
I'm Just Glad
Submitted by Paul (not verified) on Thu, 09/06/2007 - 8:48pm.
You've now learned to say thanks to Robin.
This, for me, has always been about you treating her with the respect which was missing when you posted this topic. You've arrived there, if only grudgingly.
The use of the term "annual", which actually ISN'T the term ... it's "perennial", was meant as a dig and I wasn't going to stand for it. I never said she could or could not win the race. Don't invent straw men to hind behind. It's about you being flip.
Congrats On Your Big Win Paul
Submitted by Jerid on Thu, 09/06/2007 - 8:52pm.
Chalk that one up. You're on a roll!
Feel free to let me know when you're pissy about other made up things you find in my posts.
I think
Submitted by Ryan on Thu, 09/06/2007 - 9:03pm.
I think that his issue, and I share it, is your almost narcissitic need to play kingmaker in the Ohio blogosphere. You have no problem attacking people, candidates, contributors, whatever if it suits your needs. On the other hand, yo have no problem pushing other candidates, people, etc. if it gets you something.
Not to mention the problems I see with BSB and Right Angle Blog turning into the National Enquirer and the Weekly World News with the kind of sensationalist garbage constantly splashed across the screen every day (of course Naugle shares part of the blame for this.) The point of having a blog is asking the tough questions, getting the truth and bringing to light stories that have not been covered in the MSM.
Paul's issue, and my issue, was the ease of which you were able to dismiss someone who has put themselves in front of the people and talked about issues of which she is passionate. I have great respect for someone who does that because I know it is something that I could never do. I support Ohio Democrats because I believe that they have the solutions to the problems that our state and our country face. We are standing at the precipice of a new era and I believe that the Democrats are truly the party to lead us forward. While the GOP is busy fighting about which month somone can have an abortion and whether or not two men can get married the Democratic Party is working on the big problems. We are working to ensure that abortion becomes a unneeded option and are striving to preserve civil rights for all people.
We should have respect for a person who chooses to stand up and work to make these solutions a reality.
We shouldn't attack or defame persistance. If we do, nothing will ever get done.
I think
Submitted by Jerid on Thu, 09/06/2007 - 9:18pm.
His problems linger from past issues with the site, and with not being able to shake me down when he's contacted me previously. First time I ever conversed with the guy he was an ass (was pissy asking for site statistics, and gave me some lip about Russell lying to him). Second time he got pissy when I asked him to remove his personal solicitation from the front page to the forums. So what's the real issue? I'd say it lies in there and with personal issues concerning Mr. Ackerman.
As far as your take on BSB? On kingmaker and all that? Perfectly welcome, and you don't have to put up with your impression of how anything is here. No one forces you to read or post.
And as for what I get out of all this? Friend, I work my ass off day in and day out with my "real" life. Other folks that have been under the gun at BSB, other blogs in Ohio, or elsewhere can tell you what that's like. I don't need you judging what I'm getting out of all this (bags under my eyes for one thing, and grief for dealing with folks like your friend). Can't tell you how many times I've gotten up, just like others, and not wanted to write a damn word. But the show goes on, eh.
And as for your take on Democrats and that whole lot, I agree with you for the most part. You're being a little more civil here Ryan. My point with Robin is that there are some negatives that come with that campaign, whether she's earned it, worked her butt off, or anything else is besides the point. The post wasn't about holding hands, issuing complements all round, or anything else...it's just an honest look at the District. Calling Robin anything other than annual (or "perennial" Paul...feel free to have a smug little shot my way) would've been a disservice to the post. That's neither an attack nor a defamation to her work.
And on a side, consider why I do this everyday. If you think it's for free trips to New Hampshire, I'll remind you I put a considerable chunk of my own change into that pot. You may disagree with my tactics, approach, or hell, even my hairstyle. But I do this for a reason too. Think of that.
Shake You Down?
Submitted by Paul (not verified) on Thu, 09/06/2007 - 11:08pm.
As I remember I contacted you, on behalf of a client, who was wondering how much an ad would be.
You responded, eventually, with a price.
I replied about current site traffic and then you came back with a smart ass answer, assuming it was for LCS and that if all I was interested in was eyeballs, that I should take out a classified ad in the newspaper.
Yes, Jerid, that attitude did piss me off and I wasn't going to air this publically, but so be it. I was looking for measurable information on behalf of someone who was thinking of spending money in this place and you answered back that way. That's when I started getting your measure.
And as for Russell? Yes, he did lie about statistics on BSB. The thread where he bragged about hitting 1 million visitors and 3 million views is here.
At the time he posted that, I still had full access to the sitemeter account that *I* had created for this place and I knew it was complete bullshit. I must admit I wasn't all that concerned at the time, and when in a private moment I mentioned it to him, he laughed and said something like it made BSB look better. No surprise that he changed the password to the sitemeter account right after that.
So yes, Jerid ... I plead guilty to getting pissed at someone who does business based on a lie and on flip remarks. Needless to say, the ad was never purchased.
So be careful using language like "shake me down". I don't like being lied about. Don't like it one little bit.
Do You See The Problem Here Paul?
Submitted by Jerid on Thu, 09/06/2007 - 11:20pm.
You're "misremembering" there a bit Paul. I responded that in a less than direct, friendly, whatever you want to call it way basically telling you I wasn't going to give you the statistics. I really don't want to hash through all the issues I've heard re: you, the blog, and personal interactions...so please, let's not get into a pissing match there.
Long story short, you got flip, and instigated a tiff. I responded by telling you that it seemed everything I had heard about Paul Ackerman was true since you were pulling this crap in the very first instance you contacted me, ever. You got a different perspective there? Fair enough.
Anyways, if you haven't been too impressed with me, realize the feeling is mutual. Let's just leave it at that.
...And I'd watch your claims about "lies." Making those sorts of claims come with a cost. Play nice.
I'm sorry...
Submitted by Ryan on Fri, 09/07/2007 - 8:06am.
But please tell me you aren't threatening Paul or me.
It's not a threat
Submitted by Jerid on Fri, 09/07/2007 - 8:25am.
But you're pretty close to losing your access. Paul's closer to that line. In fact he's crossed it.
Of course...
Submitted by Ryan on Fri, 09/07/2007 - 8:40am.
G-d forbid someone disagrees with your characterizations. Of course, I guess that comes as no shock considering. I'm not sure when Paul or I pissed in your Cheerios but, whatever.
Look
Submitted by Jerid on Fri, 09/07/2007 - 8:45am.
You don't have to like anything about me, BSB, or any of that. Don't care - great. You can disagree with my perspective on politics, baseball, or anything else. But there are a couple of quick ways to find the door, Paul just stumbled his way there.
So feel free to keep telling me what a creep I am. I'm done with you two.
Jeez...
Submitted by Ryan on Fri, 09/07/2007 - 8:53am.
So you booted Paul because he took issue with your characterization of a candidate for public office? Wow, didn't know dissent was not allowed here.
Again, this isn't about you. I've never referred to you as a creep or any such nonsense.
Paul's gone
Submitted by Jerid on Fri, 09/07/2007 - 9:10am.
Because he posted an email from me and him and March. Wasn't a particularly bad email either. But the point remains, after calling Russell and me a liar, he didn't get the point to lay off.
Dissent's more than welcome Ryan. It always has been. You can tell me I'm wrong all you want. Paul could've claimed I was characterizing it wrong, and left it at that. Instead he breaks out the big "L" and starts posting emails. That's a quick ticket out of the game.
I'm calling..
Submitted by Ryan on Fri, 09/07/2007 - 9:20am.
bullshit on that answer. You accuse Paul of extortion and lying and then you boot him because you say he called you a liar? What a crock.
I'm not sure what the real reason is, but I guess it doesn't matter. Since it looks like I am the next one to get booted off this fiefdom I want to say that it has been fun while it lasted. See everyone in 2008.
Lol
Submitted by Jerid on Fri, 09/07/2007 - 9:31am.
Call whatever you want. The two of you have been picking a fight for well over a day; hilarity.
And you haven't done anything to get booted. But like I said, nobody's making you read.
Picking a fight?
Submitted by Ryan on Fri, 09/07/2007 - 9:41am.
I say again...you accuse Paul of extortion and expect him not to respond? How thick can ya get? Then you ban Paul for calling you on it. Wow. Big man.
Yes, Picking a Fight
Submitted by Jerid on Fri, 09/07/2007 - 9:58am.
How many comments have you posted in the last 24 hours...going from one complaint to another. This whole thing has been a platform for the two of you to bitch...
Paul accused Russel and me of lying. I told him he was off base, but I gave him an out:
"You got a different perspective there? Fair enough."
Never was any "extortion," but the two of you like to pull stuff out of your ass so by all means keep going. Paul could've rebutted all he wanted, but he went nuclear when he posted emails.
And to save you the trouble... Rah Rah Rah. You went nuclear Jerid. Rah rah rah. Big man, punk, rah rah.
Where do you get off
Submitted by Ryan on Fri, 09/07/2007 - 10:09am.
Where do you get off talking to anyone like you have talked with Paul or me in the last 24 hours? Some things have been brought up over the past 24 hours, mainly because you've been running the blog into the ground now for a few months and Paul and I haven't wanted to say anything to avoid upsetting the apple cart. Russell and I have had our disagreements in the past but I always respected him. I think you will find that Paul had the same opinion. I can't say the same about you.
For a while now you've used the blog here as some sort of bizarre ego masturbation....trying to inject yourself into every story instead of reporting the damn facts that come across your desk. When someone does call you on it you throw them off the site.
I just don't get where you get the balls to talk to two grown men the way you have talked to the two of us.
Because Nothings Screams Respect
Submitted by Jerid on Fri, 09/07/2007 - 10:52am.
Like calling Russell a liar when he can't respond. Keep selling that line though Ryan.
On "ego masturbation"...feel free to say whatever you want about my coverage. If you don't like it just DONT COME BACK.
Thirdly, you've come to the wrong place if you think your age gets you top dawg status. I don't care if you're 18 or 88, if you've got something worthwhile to say it's welcome. Likewise, if you're an ass or idiotic, I'll call that out, regardless of age.
no one
Submitted by Ryan on Fri, 09/07/2007 - 11:10am.
no one was asking for "top dawg" status....just for you to stop acting like a jackass 12 year old screaming "me, me!" every two seconds. Just dumb.
Grow up.
12 Year Old?
Submitted by Paul (not verified) on Fri, 09/07/2007 - 11:13am.
Sounds more like my 2 year old.
I see Jerid found my email posting so objectionable that he took it down.
What a wimp!
Ryan, I know I'll "get into trouble"
Submitted by JeanLR on Fri, 09/07/2007 - 1:08pm.
but I agree that many times vigorous dialogue has reduced to disrespect and plain rudeness.
Sorry, jerid, it's my opinion, please don't ban me from BuckeyeStateLand!!!!
No ban involved Jean
Submitted by Jerid on Fri, 09/07/2007 - 1:17pm.
I've banned two folks my entire time here....the many incarnations of Dave Hickman and Paul. Vigorous debate is one thing, it takes a little more to get the ax.
Over here Jerid!
Submitted by Jerid on Fri, 09/07/2007 - 2:04pm.
"look at me! Look at me! I want to argue about more bullshit that I don't like cause I'm all pissy!" - Ryan
Maybe you should turn around those "grow up" remarks?
maybe you should begin a new
Submitted by kJk on Fri, 09/07/2007 - 3:15pm.
maybe you should begin a new thread for all of your grievance with each other. I don't know how much narrower new replies to this thread can get, but at some point, we'll probably see one-letter lines of type.
i was kinda wondering the same thing
Submitted by 2010 Buckeye on Fri, 09/07/2007 - 4:59pm.
i think we should push it to see how skinny it will get. on another note this thread is the definition of inane. i think this might be the most trouble robin weirauch has ever inadvertently caused.
B...
Submitted by Zig Zag Mag on Mon, 09/10/2007 - 9:08am.
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Hmm.
Submitted by Ryan on Thu, 09/06/2007 - 7:15pm.
Glad to see you bringing up the debate up to a respectable level Jerid.
Hardly "respect" for "debate"
Submitted by Jerid on Thu, 09/06/2007 - 8:17pm.
When you're partner in crime is just throwing around personal slams. Nowhere did he respond to my first comment, but that's just as well.
But that's been his tactic via email, no surprise it's the same online.
Take a page from the comment below...that's a way to communicate effectively. Paul's just been a joke.
Robin
Submitted by Anonymous on Thu, 09/06/2007 - 6:30pm.
I have been thinking about this a LOT over the last 24 hours.
I was present the night that Robin announced her first candidacy to the annual Wood County Keystone Club event. We were DELIGHTED to have her run because, as you mention, Jerid, our "bench" in this District is basically, non-existent. And although it was her first campaign for any elected position, the thing that I have always seen about Robin is that she is "teachable." And as one of our Party's long suffering "behind the scenes" worker drones, I've gotten pretty sick of dealing with candidates who don't get it and won't listen.
The results show Robin's improvement from 2004 to 2006. I grant you, things changed a LOT in those two years, but bear in mind, in 2004, the only congressional challenger from EITHER Party to break the forty per cent barrier was Ben Konop and he only did it by a fraction of a point.
No, Robin has not been successful at fund raising. But you have to remember, in 2002 we very nearly didn't even HAVE a Democrat on the ballot in this District. At TRULY the last minute, Dr. Roger Anderson agreed to be a "write-in" candidate in the primary which got (barely) got him on the ballot for the general election.
So Robin has had to overcome a complete lack of District wide infra-structure and basically, build everything from scratch. In all seriousness, there are some counties in this District that really don't even have a viable local Democratic Party.
I hope that somebody from the DCCC will sit down with Robin and say "OK, here's Dialing for Dollars 101. Now get to it." She's a quick study and a hard worker, I bet she'll improve. And since the 2006 election, I bet there are a LOT more likely donors today than there have been in the past.
And yes, she did garner some endorsements the most notable of which might have been from the Toledo Blade.
Which illustrates just how totally the GOP drew the boundaries of this District to protect Gillmor. There are no "big cities" in the District itself and the media is, for the most part, solidly controlled by the GOP.
Despite my reservations about Robin's chances of winning this District, Robin has earned her shot and she did it fair and square through hard work, chutzpah and her innate intelligence. And frankly, I think the odds of a stronger candidate emerging ranges from slim to meta-physical.
I think now I better understand why the GOP took the lake shore area away from Paul and gave it to Marcy - they must have talked to Gillmor's cardiologist and were planning ahead to screw Chis over. Now, with the combination of residency issues and the urgency of the ODP chairmanship gig, I think, as you say, Chris is gonna have to keep waiting. Which is OK since (like Rich Cordray) the guy still has such a baby face...
In the past, I've contributed what I could to Robin's campaign and I'm gonna do it again. I hope you'll join me.
I was present the night that Robin announced her first candidacy to the annual Wood County Keystone Club event. We were DELIGHTED to have her run because, as you mention, Jerid, our "bench" in this District is basically, non-existent. And although it was her first campaign for any elected position, the thing that I have always seen about Robin is that she is "teachable." And as one of our Party's long suffering "behind the scenes" worker drones, I've gotten pretty sick of dealing with candidates who don't get it and won't listen.
The results show Robin's improvement from 2004 to 2006. I grant you, things changed a LOT in those two years, but bear in mind, in 2004, the only congressional challenger from EITHER Party to break the forty per cent barrier was Ben Konop and he only did it by a fraction of a point.
No, Robin has not been successful at fund raising. But you have to remember, in 2002 we very nearly didn't even HAVE a Democrat on the ballot in this District. At TRULY the last minute, Dr. Roger Anderson agreed to be a "write-in" candidate in the primary which got (barely) got him on the ballot for the general election.
So Robin has had to overcome a complete lack of District wide infra-structure and basically, build everything from scratch. In all seriousness, there are some counties in this District that really don't even have a viable local Democratic Party.
I hope that somebody from the DCCC will sit down with Robin and say "OK, here's Dialing for Dollars 101. Now get to it." She's a quick study and a hard worker, I bet she'll improve. And since the 2006 election, I bet there are a LOT more likely donors today than there have been in the past.
And yes, she did garner some endorsements the most notable of which might have been from the Toledo Blade.
Which illustrates just how totally the GOP drew the boundaries of this District to protect Gillmor. There are no "big cities" in the District itself and the media is, for the most part, solidly controlled by the GOP.
Despite my reservations about Robin's chances of winning this District, Robin has earned her shot and she did it fair and square through hard work, chutzpah and her innate intelligence. And frankly, I think the odds of a stronger candidate emerging ranges from slim to meta-physical.
I think now I better understand why the GOP took the lake shore area away from Paul and gave it to Marcy - they must have talked to Gillmor's cardiologist and were planning ahead to screw Chis over. Now, with the combination of residency issues and the urgency of the ODP chairmanship gig, I think, as you say, Chris is gonna have to keep waiting. Which is OK since (like Rich Cordray) the guy still has such a baby face...
In the past, I've contributed what I could to Robin's campaign and I'm gonna do it again. I hope you'll join me.
Good point
Submitted by Jerid on Thu, 09/06/2007 - 6:43pm.
Well thought out. I'd share more back, but I'm still over at school.
The point that I want to tie back into is that Robin does indeed have a shot with all of this. That's what I was getting at in my post (which Paul couldn't see if it smacked him in his face...no need to respond Paul). Bearing Gillmor's retirement, I don't think a lot of people had faith in her to take this district (and no offense meant there, it's just based on the last two cycles). However, if things work out for her in this shakedown and she does end up as the nominee again, she'll be running in an open district that people are looking at all of a sudden. That presents an opportunity to capitalize on (with early donors and endorsements). If she can significant support NOW, that would signify that this isn't going to be the same 'ole race in '08.
And "baby face." Heh. Love it. Next class.
Robin Wierauch
Submitted by Woodguy on Thu, 09/06/2007 - 6:43pm.
I have been thinking about this a LOT over the last 24 hours.
I was present the night that Robin announced her first candidacy to the annual Wood County Keystone Club event. We were DELIGHTED to have her run because, as you mention, Jerid, our "bench" in this District is basically, non-existent. And although it was her first campaign for any elected position, the thing that I have always seen about Robin is that she is "teachable." And as one of our Party's long suffering "behind the scenes" worker drones, I've gotten pretty sick of dealing with candidates who don't get it and won't listen.
The results show her improvement from 2004 to 2006. I grant you, things changed a LOT in those two years, but bear in mind, in 2004, the only congressional challenger from EITHER Party to break the forty per cent barrier was Ben Konop and he only did it by a fraction of a point.
No, Robin has not been successful at fund raising. But you have to remember, in 2002 we very nearly didn't even HAVE a Democrat on the ballot in this District. At TRULY the last minute, Dr. Roger Anderson agreed to be a "write-in" candidate in the primary which got (barely) got him on the ballot for the general election.
So Robin has had to overcome a complete lack of District wide infra-structure and basically, build everything from scratch. In all seriousness, there are some counties in this District that really don't even have a viable local Democratic Party.
I hope that somebody from the DCCC will sit down with Robin and say "OK, here's Dialing for Dollars 101. Now get to it." She's a quick study and a hard worker, I bet she'll improve. And since the 2006 election, I bet there are a LOT more likely donors today than there have been in the past.
And yes, she did garner some endorsements the most notable of which might have been from the Toledo Blade.
Which illustrates just how totally the GOP drew the boundaries of this District to protect Gillmor. There are no "big cities" in the District itself and the media is, for the most part, solidly controlled by the GOP.
Despite my reservations about Robin's chances of winning this District, Robin has earned her shot and she did it fair and square through hard work, chutzpah and her innate intelligence. And frankly, I think the odds of a stronger candidate emerging ranges from slim to meta-physical.
I think now I better understand why the GOP took the lake shore area away from Paul and gave it to Marcy - they must have talked to Gillmor's cardiologist and were planning ahead to screw Chis over. Now, with the combination of residency issues and the urgency of the ODP chairmanship gig, I think, as you say, Chris is gonna have to keep waiting. Which is OK since (like Rich Cordray) the guy still has such a baby face...
In the past, I've contributed what I could to Robin's campaign and I'm gonna do it again. I hope you'll join me.
We MUST stop Gardner or Latta from cruising to an easy victory. And it won't be a media campaign, rather it will take door-to-door hand-to-hand bloody combat. But even that will take a lot of dough. Robin is gonna need field offices, tireless staffers, tons of volunteers with good "walking lists" absolutely up-to-the-minute calling and mailing lists and (of course) good donor lists. For the sake of all of our outstanding crop of Congressional challengers this season, we MUST NOT let the GOPers have an easy one.
I was present the night that Robin announced her first candidacy to the annual Wood County Keystone Club event. We were DELIGHTED to have her run because, as you mention, Jerid, our "bench" in this District is basically, non-existent. And although it was her first campaign for any elected position, the thing that I have always seen about Robin is that she is "teachable." And as one of our Party's long suffering "behind the scenes" worker drones, I've gotten pretty sick of dealing with candidates who don't get it and won't listen.
The results show her improvement from 2004 to 2006. I grant you, things changed a LOT in those two years, but bear in mind, in 2004, the only congressional challenger from EITHER Party to break the forty per cent barrier was Ben Konop and he only did it by a fraction of a point.
No, Robin has not been successful at fund raising. But you have to remember, in 2002 we very nearly didn't even HAVE a Democrat on the ballot in this District. At TRULY the last minute, Dr. Roger Anderson agreed to be a "write-in" candidate in the primary which got (barely) got him on the ballot for the general election.
So Robin has had to overcome a complete lack of District wide infra-structure and basically, build everything from scratch. In all seriousness, there are some counties in this District that really don't even have a viable local Democratic Party.
I hope that somebody from the DCCC will sit down with Robin and say "OK, here's Dialing for Dollars 101. Now get to it." She's a quick study and a hard worker, I bet she'll improve. And since the 2006 election, I bet there are a LOT more likely donors today than there have been in the past.
And yes, she did garner some endorsements the most notable of which might have been from the Toledo Blade.
Which illustrates just how totally the GOP drew the boundaries of this District to protect Gillmor. There are no "big cities" in the District itself and the media is, for the most part, solidly controlled by the GOP.
Despite my reservations about Robin's chances of winning this District, Robin has earned her shot and she did it fair and square through hard work, chutzpah and her innate intelligence. And frankly, I think the odds of a stronger candidate emerging ranges from slim to meta-physical.
I think now I better understand why the GOP took the lake shore area away from Paul and gave it to Marcy - they must have talked to Gillmor's cardiologist and were planning ahead to screw Chis over. Now, with the combination of residency issues and the urgency of the ODP chairmanship gig, I think, as you say, Chris is gonna have to keep waiting. Which is OK since (like Rich Cordray) the guy still has such a baby face...
In the past, I've contributed what I could to Robin's campaign and I'm gonna do it again. I hope you'll join me.
We MUST stop Gardner or Latta from cruising to an easy victory. And it won't be a media campaign, rather it will take door-to-door hand-to-hand bloody combat. But even that will take a lot of dough. Robin is gonna need field offices, tireless staffers, tons of volunteers with good "walking lists" absolutely up-to-the-minute calling and mailing lists and (of course) good donor lists. For the sake of all of our outstanding crop of Congressional challengers this season, we MUST NOT let the GOPers have an easy one.
Democratic Dark Horse: Jim Melle?
Submitted by Anonymous on Thu, 09/06/2007 - 6:48pm.
Another possibility is Jim Melle, an attorney from Fremont. He opposed State Rep. Jeff Wagner a few years back, and is a Fremont City Councilman. Speaking of Wagner, some folks in Seneca County wonder if Wagner will be able to resist the temptation of going for it.
inside info
Submitted by Anonymous on Thu, 09/06/2007 - 7:34pm.
John Quinn was my high school history teacher, and Randy Gardner is one heck of a b-ball player. You're not going to find political analysis like that anywhere else! :)
Another Democratic Darkhorse
Submitted by Anonymous on Thu, 09/06/2007 - 10:22pm.
Bowling Green City Councilman Gordy Heminger. A young democrat like Ben Konop, he is sure to run an energetic campaign. He has a base in Lucas County from his time on Maumee City Council plus he is a current elected official in the county seat of Wood County. He won his last election with 80% of vote and is unopposed for re-election.
Darkhorse Democratic Candidate
Submitted by Anonymous on Thu, 09/06/2007 - 10:30pm.
Gordy Heminger, Bowling Green City Councilman. He has a base in Lucas county from his time on Maumee City Council and won his last election in Bowling Greek (the county seat in Wood County) with over 80% of the vote. He's unopposed this time and he's a young, energetic candidate in the mold of Ben Konop. He could make a race of it.
My view...
Submitted by Nick D on Thu, 09/06/2007 - 10:55pm.
My thought is that Betty Montgomery couldn't have gift-wrapped herself a bigger present. This is a perfect opportunity to get back in the political saddle for her. The largest population center in the 5th District is Wood County, where Betty previously served as a prosecutor and a State Senator. I have to believe if she's interested in running, that she can win a Republican primary.
Somebody beat me to it. . .
Submitted by Anonymous on Thu, 09/06/2007 - 11:25pm.
Betty Montgomery must be considered. Her home is in Wood County, Perrysburg and she has a lot of support here. However, it must be mentioned that Marc Dann did beat her in her own county. If it were a battle in the Republican primary between Latta and Gardner and you threw in Betty, I'd say she'd be the favorite (two men versus a woman. . .).
Betty Montgomery
Submitted by Anonymous on Thu, 09/06/2007 - 11:04pm.
Congressman Gillmor and Betty Montgomery were very close. If Karen Gillmor decides not to run, maybe Betty will be the handpicked candidate of the family.
Betty
Submitted by Anonymous on Thu, 09/06/2007 - 11:24pm.
Of course, it is true that Betty has had success in the past in Wood County. But getting past Gardner and Latta is gonna be a toughie. Also, I would have to wonder if her health would enable her to complete this race. Gardner is better at fund raising and I think that he would tend to cannibalize Betty's donor base.
It looks like Gillmor is out
Submitted by Anonymous on Fri, 09/07/2007 - 12:19am.
according to the Rothenberg Report--
Karen Gillmor (R), widow of Cong. Paul Gillmor (R), has decided to forego a run for her late husband’s seat, according to normally reliable Republican sources. State Rep. Bob Latta (R) is now likely to get in the race.
http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2007/09/ohio-5-karen-gillmor-out-latta-in.html
Karen Gillmor (R), widow of Cong. Paul Gillmor (R), has decided to forego a run for her late husband’s seat, according to normally reliable Republican sources. State Rep. Bob Latta (R) is now likely to get in the race.
http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2007/09/ohio-5-karen-gillmor-out-latta-in.html
shit, call robin. if anyone
Submitted by Anonymous on Fri, 09/07/2007 - 2:19am.
shit, call robin. if anyone in probably the history of this country was better suited to represent their constituents then i don't know who. the women only fucking want to represent the people of oh-5 the best they can be represented. at a time when their's a president who treats the constitution like it's a memo from accounting, if their was ever a person who should be in the congress it's her. for reals.
Democratic Dark horse
Submitted by Anonymous on Fri, 09/07/2007 - 8:13am.
Gordy Heminger, Bowling Green City Councilman. He has a base in Lucas County from his time on Maumee City Council and was just re-elected in Bowling Green (county seat for Wood County) with over 80% of the vote. He's a young up and coming democrat who I could see running a campaign like Ben Konop. He's unopposed this year and I would suspect he's a name to watch.
Betty is not interested
Submitted by Anonymous on Fri, 09/07/2007 - 2:58pm.
Talked to her myself. She has been asked to run in the 18th, 15th and now the 5th. She has no interest in running for Congress. Trust me, folks are trying to talk her into it so you can never say never. But, as of right now she is not interested.
Annual candidate?