OH-1: Poll Shows Opportunity For Driehaus

This morning I was sent some poll numbers from American Political Polling that seem to show promise in the battle of the 1st district Steve’s. According to this, Democrat Steve Driehaus seems to lead incumbent Steve Chabot by a 3:1 margin.

Survey Responses

1. The majority of District 1 voters, 54.7%, believe that George Bush is doing an “excellent, good or fair” job as President while 37.5% believe he is doing a “poor” job of leading the country.
2. If the election were held today, 63% say they would vote for Democrat Barack Obama.
3. If the election were held today, 16% say they would vote for Republican John McCain.
4. If the election were held today, 20% are still undecided.
5. Generally speaking, 57% of voters in OH1 say that Ohio is heading in the wrong direction. 
6. Generally speaking the most important issue is the economy at 62%.
7. Incumbent Chabot holds a favorable rating among voters in the Butler County portion of his district and his support base appears stronger there than in Hamilton County.
8. Voters in Hamilton County, which represents the vast majority of the First District, appear ready for a change in party and candidate for their district.
9. Polling results suggest that challenger Steve Driehaus leads incumbent Steve Chabot by a 3 to 1 margin.

The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4 % with a 95% confidence level.

Now I’m not sure how much faith I’d put in a poll that has such high approval numbers for Bush (though I would like to see the breakdown of excellent, good, and fair), but I’ll still take this as a good sign.

The poll was done over three days (ending July 11) in Hamilton and Butler counties. The sample size was 598 registered voters.

I would like to personally go on the record as predicting that Steve will win this race. Now which Steve that is, I leave to fate...