OH-15: Updated Ballot Counts Show Another Small Boost For Stivers
Submitted by David Potts on Tue, 11/25/2008 - 6:59pm.
The Dispatch (R-Columbus) is reporting that Steve Stivers has added 115 votes to the narrow lead he holds over Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy. The change comes after Madison County released it's final vote tally.
While this takes Stivers lead to 594 votes, I'm still feeling pretty good about this race. Union and Madison counties were both expected to go for Stivers, and they both have final tallies now. Franklin County, which was expected to break for Kilroy still has several thousand votes left to count. If it were me, I'd much rather be in Kilroy's place right now.
Some tentative answers
Submitted by Woodguy on Tue, 11/25/2008 - 10:17pm.
This dispute also is holding up Marian Harris's race for House District 19 in the General Assembly.
1. Unknown how many of these are from OH-15. The Dogpatch surmises that about 40% of Franklin County is in this District.
2. These are all provisionals, the absentees have been counted and are now in the totals. Everything that is likely to go against Kilroy are now in the totals.
3. In this case, that's a good question. On Election Day, from 7:30 AM until 9:30 AM thousands of voters were improperly "flagged" by the BoE computers and forced to vote provo. The likely percentage that get accepted will be high BUT the Forces of Evil will contest every one. This is one evil BoE (thanks to Damschroeder.)
4. Odds of Kilroy coming out on top is high. But it might be next year.
This issue about "flagging" voters (because some detail of their registration somehow conflicts with some public roll) has already been adjudicated and Judge Brunner prevailed. Federal law prohibits "purging" any voters within the 90 days prior to the election. Given their prior recent rulings on these issues, there is no way for the state Supremes to disenfranchise these thousands of voters. The forces of evil are just going through the motions.
1. Unknown how many of these are from OH-15. The Dogpatch surmises that about 40% of Franklin County is in this District.
2. These are all provisionals, the absentees have been counted and are now in the totals. Everything that is likely to go against Kilroy are now in the totals.
3. In this case, that's a good question. On Election Day, from 7:30 AM until 9:30 AM thousands of voters were improperly "flagged" by the BoE computers and forced to vote provo. The likely percentage that get accepted will be high BUT the Forces of Evil will contest every one. This is one evil BoE (thanks to Damschroeder.)
4. Odds of Kilroy coming out on top is high. But it might be next year.
This issue about "flagging" voters (because some detail of their registration somehow conflicts with some public roll) has already been adjudicated and Judge Brunner prevailed. Federal law prohibits "purging" any voters within the 90 days prior to the election. Given their prior recent rulings on these issues, there is no way for the state Supremes to disenfranchise these thousands of voters. The forces of evil are just going through the motions.
Questions
1. How many of the remaining 27,000 Franklin County ballots are in the district?
2. How many ballots are absentee and how many are provisionals? I hear each term used in different articles.
3. If they are all provisionals, what percentage are likely to get counted?
4. Assuming for a moment that the 1,000 are not counted, what are the odds that Kilroy will overcome the nearly 600 vote lead that Stivers currently has?
Thanks!