OH-02: Krikorian releases poll showing him losing ground to Jean Schmidt, declares victory?!?

So, today was the day Geoffrey Sea was supposed to give me a poll showing Krikorian ahead of State Rep. Todd Book in Pike and Scioto County among Democratic primary voters in a head-to-head matchup.  If he had, I would have donated $50 to Krikorian's campaign by today's FEC deadline.  Looks like my money is safe.  Coincidentially, I did get an e-mail from the Krikorian campaign hyping their new poll, but it doesn't show that Krikorian is beating Book or Parker at all.  In fact, the Krikorian campaign's press release makes it pretty clear that they never included either Book or Parker in their polling at all.

From the press release:

The poll of 500 likely voters was conducted between September 20 and 21 by Pulse Opinion Research on behalf of the Krikorian campaign. District-wide, 48% of likely voters would vote for Jean Schmidt "if the election were held today." 40% would vote for David Krikorian. 7% would vote "for some other candidate," and 5% are "not sure."

Since the other two declared candidates in the race are both Democrats, it can be presumed that the 7% "other" vote is mostly or all Democratic, making a Schmidt-Krikorian race highly competitive. The poll has a 4.5% margin of error.

So, again, the only way you get to this result is to presume that the general election is a three-way race which can only likely occur if Krikorian runs as an Independent.  And anyone who thinks the Democratic nominee is only going to get 7% of the vote if Krikorian runs as an Independent is nuts since we already know that Wulsin got over 40% in 2008 when Krikorian ran as an Independent.  There's spinning a poll, and then there's just intellectual fraud.

To look at these results and to make the claims that the Krikorian campaign is making is just intellectually and morally bankrupt.  A real poll would have mentioned, by name, either State Rep. Todd Book and/or Jim Parker.  You cannot poll "Someone else" instead of the name of your known opponents and equate the results as reflective of a "head-to-head" poll.  Hell, the only reason you'd phrase the question like this is because you know the results would be different if the respondents are given the names of your opponents!

Regardless, Krikorian glosses over the fact that he's actually losing ground to Schmidt.  Today's Krikorian campaign poll shows him losing by eight points to Jean Schmidt-- well beyond the margin of error.   In a poll his campaign commissioned in June by the same polling outfit, asking the same question, Krikorian's campaign pollster had him within five points.  It also showed Krikorian beating Schmidt in Pike and Scioto Counties in a two-way head-to-head.  Now, his polls show him eight points behind and LOSING Scioto and Pike Counties- two counties Jean Schmidt has NEVER won!  Of course, if your David Krikorian, you spin this as a problem for the Democratic Party and not your candidacy:

Parker and Book hail from Pike and Scioto counties, respectively, the two easternmost counties in the district. Even in those counties, only 5% of likely voters in Pike and 7% in Scioto support "some other candidate," with Krikorian at 40% and 22% respectively.  (0% in Pike and 27% in Scioto say they are "not sure.")

Though both Pike and Scioto usually vote Democratic in congressional elections, Schmidt is now ahead in both counties, reflecting voter disaffection with the machine Democratic Party that rules there. That applies especially to Todd Book, a Democratic State Representative whose district only partially overlaps with OH-02 and who is closely tied to Ted Strickland.
...
The take-away message of the new poll is that Scioto County has become the biggest problem area for Democrats, and among the three Democratic primary candidates, only David Krikorian has significant district-wide name recognition, an identification of independence, and a reasonable chance of defeating Jean Schmidt in the general election.

Yes, how can the Democratic Party deal with the problem that if David Krikorian is the Democratic nominee they'll lose both Pike and Scioto County?  Oh how, oh how, can they avoid that?!?  I know! Don't have Krikorian as the Democratic nominee!  Krikorian spins this poll like a top trying to make his loss ground the fault of the "party machines" (sound familiar?), but he glosses over the fact that he's demonstrated why he's too stupid to be our nominee:  if the endorsements were such a negative for Todd Book, then wouldn't you have expected that Krikorian would have seen a bounce in sympathy?  Instead, he telegraphs to the entire political world that he gets a paultry 22% of the general election vote in Scioto County and only 40% in Pike County if he's the Democratic nominee.  (That would be a fourteen point underperformance in Pike County and THIRTY-FIVE point underperformance in Scioto County to Vic Wulsin's '08 performance in those counties.)  If anything, it would appear (from Krikorian's OWN poll), that his antics over these endorsements in these counties have cost him any chance in the general election.  (On a side note, I'd also be wary of trusting any county-by-county results of a poll that only asked 500 people district wide.)

What campaign genius thought it was a good idea to publish these numbers showing that if Krikorian is the Democratic nominee, Jean Schmidt gets the best congressional election result she'll ever get and will win in counties she never won?  I cannot imagine something better for the Krikorian campaign to hand deliver to the Book campaign than a campaign poll by Krikorian that shows him losing by eight points and losing in most of the counties, especially in the counties where the Democratic candidate has historically won.  A poll that was stacked in Krikorian's favor in the questioning, might I add.  Why trumpet it especially with the naive headline like "New Poll Shows Krikorian Only Candidate that can beat Jean Schmidt?"  One, such a headline points out the flaw that your poll never tested the other Democratic primary candidates.  And two, and this cannot be overstated, your poll shows you as the only candidate that will lose to Jean Schmidt.

If anything, Krikorian's own poll shows that his "my way or the highway" attitude turned off voters in Pike and Scioto County to the point that if he's the nominee, Schmidt's re-election is practically guaranteed.  If I were State Representative Todd Book's campaign, I'd circulate Krikorian's own stacked poll numbers to show every party activist and fundraiser the stakes of this primary. 

Here's a protip, Krikorian campaign, just because you paid for a poll doesn't mean you're required to broadcast its results.  My $50 is safe.