Obama Will Lose Ohio - But It'll Be Close Enough

Before every election I make predictions with a motley band of Ohio bloggers, consultants, & activists about how things will go. Most of us are resigned to the fact that we don't think Obama will pull out the Ohio win. I'm lumped in that group.

While I'm not totally sold on the accuracy of the last bout of polling that came out yesterday, I am disheartened by the fact Obama never broke through with a consistent surge above Clinton in public polling. Additionally, the comments made by a factory worker from Chillicothe on 60 minutes the other day about Obama being a muslim really are an eye opener. I think his margins in the 6th, 18th districts, and everywhere else down south (read below the I-70 corridor) are going to be awful. Utterly awful. That's reinforced by the fact that one of my housemates drove 5 hours yesterday to vote early for Barack (because he'd forgotten to request an absentee ballot) and when he got back to Dayton he had an argument with his parents about how, despite what they'd heard, Obama is not a muslim. What I'm getting at is I think the email smear campaigns were particularly effective in Ohio.

The higher the turnout today the better for Obama - and I think turnout will still eclipse two million primary voters (an Ohio record). But the youth vote won't show up in Ohio for him, and he won't return as significant inroads among female voters as he needs to pull this thing out of the bag.

The real interesting thing will be to watch how both Clinton perform in the 15th, 17th, 11th, and 10th district. While I'm sure smears sunk in in those areas, I think they'll probably have less sway than elsewhere in the state. Still, the level of organization and institutional support the Obama campaign had to overcome with Clinton was massive, and it'll be due in no small part to her victory (if it comes) as well. I think the results will be close statewide, something like 53-46 (with Edwards pulling off some from the statewide tally). However, CD delegate tallies may be close because of the ridiculously complicated way we do things in Ohio.

But all that said, I do think the race will be over today (or the pressure to end it will magnify from the party by X1000). I think Texas goes for Obama, as well Vermont...and unless she really puts Ohio away with a slam dunk, the party elders will start putting the pressure on to end this thing (and I'm watching for an exodus of Clinton staffers).

Anywhoo, that's my prediction...but I am just a dumb blogger.  And this prediction shouldn't kill anyone's fire - it's extremely important Obama keeps things close in Ohio today, even if he does lose. So make sure to call you family, friends, relatives, hunting partners, and everyone else to get the vote out.