Rethinking the Ohio Sixth Congressional Race....

Over the last month, the Republicans have been talking about how the Sixth Congressional race is supposedly this great pick up opporuntity for them.  But, I've noticed that they haven't really been talking about how State Represenative Chuck Blasdel, their nominee, is supposedly such a strong candidate for this district.  Now I know why.

During his last re-election campaign, State Representative Blasdel raised and spent over $100k in his re-election campaign.  His Democratic opponent, Frank Rayl, raised and spent about $23k.  That's over a 4:1 ratio.

And how did State Representative Blasdel do as an incumbant running for re-election with a 4:1 money advantage during a presidential election in which his party won?

Blasdel won by 50.52%-49.48%.  It was the second tightest race for an Ohio Republican State Representative candidate for an incumbent.  He won by a margin of 482 votes.  Conversely, State Senator Charlie Wilson, running in the same county as Blasdel as well as four others won with two-thirds of the vote in his district of which three of the four counties in his State Senate district are also in the Sixth Congressional.  Given that the greater population area of the district is in the Democratic stronghold where Wilson is already a known candidate, his strength there gives him a natural base right where a candidate would want to have a base.  Blasdel, meanwhile, doesn't really have a base of support where he is a known candidate.  He is unknown in the more Republican parts of the district which are more sparsely populated.

If the 2004 elections are any guide, Wilson has a strong base in the most populous area of the district, which is also heavily Democratic.  And Blasdel is a wounded candidate who barely managed to win re-election despite having a 4:1 fundraising advantage and incumbency in a pro-Republican election.

Now, tell me, how's this race a likely take over opportunity for the Republicans?