Strickland by 20%, Brown by 8% in Dispatch Poll
Submitted by Ohio2006 on Sun, 07/23/2006 - 9:54am.
A huge 20% lead for gubernatorial hopeful Rep. Ted. Strickand (D-Lisbon), and a significant 8% lead for senatorial candidate Rep. Sherrod Brown (D-Avon), according to a poll by the Columbus Dispatch released today:
I think
Submitted by staff on Sun, 07/23/2006 - 10:41am.
until evidence surfaces beyond Blackwell's wishful thinking, the whole "blacks are gonna vote for blackwell" idea needs to be kicked to the curb. There has simply been no evidence of it. The real story, and it's been the story since day one - is that Strickland is drawing massive amounts of right leaning independents and moderate republicans away from Blackwell. The GOP efforts to paint him as some out of touch liberal is failing and will continue to fail - because it simply isn't true. People can already see that it is Blackwell who is out of the mainstream. Very out of the mainstream in fact and they want nothing to do with him. What's even better news for us - EVERY poll coming out, for Strickland and others is showing the same thing. There is no data the GOP can hold onto to show they are going to get anything other than beat badly in November. The only question left to answer is - just how badly ? Right now it looks devastating.
I'm heading out right now
Submitted by AmberCat on Sun, 07/23/2006 - 11:35am.
to help boost that margin. I'm pinning my Strickland button onto my Jennifer Brunner t-shirt and gathering my pamphlets together. Mr. Out-of-Touch Blackwell is going to be looking for a new line of work after November. Maybe the World Harvest Church can find a job for him!
Hold on, staff
Submitted by modernesquire on Sun, 07/23/2006 - 12:21pm.
I think it's too early to conclude that Blackwell's outreach to African-American voters is a failure. After all, he has picked up the endorsement of several African-American ministers from central Ohio and the mayor of East Cleveland.
The real issue is whether Blackwell can attract enough African-American voters to offset Strickland's gain of independents and moderate Republicans? This poll suggests he cannot.
My full analysis of the poll is at my blog, but some of it bears repeating here.¬ Strickland is dominating every demographic group.¬ He has an advantage in both genders, all races, almost all age groups, all income groups, all education levels, and union and non-union households.¬ He has a sizeable geographic advantage in all but southwestern and western Ohio.
If this poll is an accurate predictor, it means that Blackwell needs to win over 84% of the current undecided vote to win.¬ That's a pretty tall order for someone who has the name recognition advantage.
This race is over
Submitted by staff on Sun, 07/23/2006 - 1:07pm.
Absent any nuclear bomb dropping on Strickland HQ - this race is over. There is simply no data, nor has there been any data to suggest that Blackwell is even close to being a serious challenger.
He's as credible as Alan Keyes. Period. Only his ultra controversial style even has people talking about this race any more.
the more he tries to "define" strickland, the more ridiculous he sounds and the less votes he is going to get. I think we are about to witness the worst GOP Gov performance in Ohio in recent memory.
Agreed, to a point...
Submitted by modernesquire on Sun, 07/23/2006 - 1:16pm.
I agree that I think it's difficult to imagine a scenerio where Blackwell changes the course of this election. Let's not get complacent. Just because this is the best we all can remember a statewide Democrat doing against a Republican in Ohio doesn't mean it's a sure bet.
I for one would feel more confident if Strickland was consistently polling above the 50% magic mark beyond the margin of error. There is still four months left to the campaign, no real air war has started, no debates, and people aren't paying attention to it right now. It's too early to have a winner declared and for us to move on elsewhere.
This race will tighten, and will probably tighten quickly come September.
Let's not forget that Ken Blackwell has aspirations higher than just being Ohio's governor. And he knows that if he doesn't win this election, the rationale for him being a bigger player in national Republican politics takes a huge hit. So Blackwell won't go down quietly or easily. He's going to do everything in and out of the book to get what he wants. Cause if he loses, he's down and out for good.
Strickland for the Aged...
Submitted by J-Dog on Sun, 07/23/2006 - 2:29pm.
The most telling demographic in the Dispatch poll showed that Strickland leads among all age groups (except in the 18-24 range where he's tied), and that the Strickland lead gets bigger and bigger as the ages increase.¬ Assuming that holds true, Blackwell better be hoping for a huge turnout among those under age 30.¬ If that happens, it'll be a first.¬ Collectively, between ages 35 and 75, Strickland has huge leads across the board.¬ Hopefully, that translates to a similar lead among the most likely voters!
Wow.....
Submitted by modernesquire on Sun, 07/23/2006 - 2:36pm.
Sorry, but I keep thinking about Blackwell being at 27%.¬¬ I think this comment over at RAB says it best:
Ken Blackwell=Rob BurchI can't recall a time where I've seen a Republican poll soooo badly at the top of the ticket in Ohio.¬ To have a canidate with nearly universal name recognition in Ohio and a record of 3-0 in statewide races to have only the support of barely over a quarter of the electorate underscores how much the ORP is split and lost the independent vote.The envirpnment couldn't be much worse for the ORP.¬ It's like anti-1994.Incidentially, a new Rasmussen Reports poll on the race should be released later this week.
Yeah 27% sucks for them. But
Submitted by dirtgirl on Sun, 07/23/2006 - 5:27pm.
Yeah 27% sucks for them. But on the bright side, all they need is 88% of the undecideds to break their way to win.
seriously, though, let's hope that this helps to dry up some of Blackwell's potential to raise money, especially out of state. Could really lessen the impact of the swiftboat-style attacks that are surely on the drawing board.
Honestly though
Submitted by Evan Tribley on Mon, 07/24/2006 - 2:57pm.
I don't think having a huge youth vote turnout for Blackwell will help him at all either. I have a hard time finding students at my pretty much ultra conservative college (Ohio Northern University) that can defend Ken Blackwell. My favorite thing to point out as College Dems President is the box of a few thousand voter registration forms sent to us by the Sec. of State. We could never use them because Blackwell of course sent those out to us in 2004 on regular paper stock and then made his infamous rule about the card stock the voter registration forms had to be on. Every time I look at that box I feel disinfranchised and I really think thats the feeling by most young people.
Blackwell can't depend on the youth vote because unfortunately most of us don't vote and secondly those of us who do are for the most part completely dissatisfied with him. That's coming from a student with a college by my estimates a 15:1 republican to democrat ratio. Kinda weird isn't it?
Some of the internals