NH Officially Up For Grabs; I'm Torn
Most of the focus over the past two weeks has hung over Obama's rising presence and performance in Iowa. About 12 months ago, if you'd have told me anyone other than Edwards would win the caucuses I'd have laughed. Now we've got a drop down drag out fight between Barack and Hillary Clinton for the first round throughout the Hawkeye State. But it's undeniably shown now in polls throughout the past month, and looking at trends of the last few months, that Obama has the lead and momentum among Iowa voters. However, we're 21 days till Caucus, and the margin between the Clinton and Obama camps are so slim that even if only a small group of Barack's supporters get weak knees and turn to the name they know (Clinton), rather than the upstart (Obama), she may pull out a win in Iowa still. And of course, everything's within the margin.
And so Obama may win Iowa. And then for five days the media gets their way to spin and yarn and make up whatever narrative they want going into the New Hampshire primary, where, like Edwards lock on Iowa 12 months ago, Hillary has always been the presumptive first-in-the-nation-primary-queen. This is a state that SAVED her husband, dubbing him the comeback kid after his 2nd place finish. For months the former Governor (and likely Senate nominee) and her husband, Bill and Jeanne Shaheen, have firmly led up the local Clinton organization. It's a state that's shown a double digit clinton lead FOREVER. But, alas, it's Clinton Country no more.
From today's Union Leader:
REPORTS OF of New Hampshire as a firewall for Hillary Clinton have apparently been greatly exaggerated...
For those who haven't seen them yet, here are the numbers.
The CNN/WMUR poll, completed by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center Dec. 6-10 and released early yesterday morning, showed Clinton with 31 percent, Obama with 30 percent, John Edwards with 16 percent and Bill Richardson with 7 percent.
A month ago, the same poll showed Clinton leading Obama 36 to 22 percent, with Edwards at 13 percent and Richardson at 12 percent.
A poll by Rasmussen Reports showed Obama now leading Clinton 31 to 28 percent, with Edwards at 17 percent and Richardson at 8 percent. The same poll showed her with a 7-point lead two weeks ago and a 10-point lead a month ago.
A separate poll by Suffolk University and WHDH in Boston showed Clinton leading Obama 33 to 26 percent, with Edwards at 15 percent.
Which the Union Leader appropriately expounds upon...
While they're statistically tied in two of the three polls, Clinton and Obama are going in opposite directions. With three weeks to go before the Iowa caucuses and 26 days until the leadoff primary, will momentum in each direction slow? Will we see more shifts? How many? Or will the race be a virtual tie going into primary day, which will make it a genuine test of their organizations' get-out-the-vote efforts?
What will the Clinton and Obama campaigns do from here? Clinton will reportedly "go comparative," if not negative, in the next few days.
Well, she's already gone "comparative" in the granite state. Or should I say the Shaheen's have.
We're there folks. The dam is crumbling in Iowa and is very near collapse in New Hampshire, no matter what those silly national polls say. And folks with the political capital to spend, hear lines of Dante (or Kennedy, Churchill, or whomever) whispered in the air: "The hottest places in hell are reserved for those who in a time of great moral crisis maintain their neutrality."
Say, for example, NH Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter of New Hampshire who had previously stated she'd stay out of the endorsement game:
On the conference call she mentioned previous statements that she would not endorse any candidate "unless there was a compelling reason".
Asked if Obama's recent momentum in Iowa and New Hampshire was that "compelling reason" and that she could help put in over the top she replied, "What do you think?" (H/T BlueHampshire)
What do you think, indeed? The "inevitable" wall has crumbled. Whomever Iowans, New Hampshire residents, and - really - the nation decides upon for the next Democratic nominee, it'll be close. Whether Hillary Clinton can push down Obama's momentum throughout the Holiday season remains to be seen. Which leaves me scratching my head daily, of these two which one would I prefer sitting in the Oval? I'm torn every day.
