More on that Quinny poll

I don't think David's post did the latest Quinny poll justice as how bad things look for Governor Strickland in this poll.  He saw a double digit drop in his approval and favorability ratings . . . in a month.  Both are now below 50%.

Ohioans have declared the honeymoon is over with Strickland.  They disapprove of his handling of the economy and the budget in particular.  It's safe to assume that with Ohio's unemployment in double digits, the economy is the primary motivator in the souring on Strickland.

For the first time, Strickland's approval rating is below 50%-- sufficient below 50% beyond the margin of error for the poll.  A sub-50% approval rating a year before an election is a sign that an incumbent may be in danger (then again, see Bush '04 and plenty of other examples of politicians that won re-election with bad poll numbers a year prior).

Among Republican voters, Kasich now leads by a statistically insignificant margin over DeWine since May's poll showing DeWine ahead.  However, whereas Strickland still clearly beats Kasich, he's now in a statistical tie with Mike DeWine.  So Republicans are presently supporting the weaker general election candidate.

Does it mean the Strickland is doomed?  Hardly, but it does suggest that the fate of the election largely hinges on something beyond any Governor's control: the economy.  If the economy is perceived to be substantially improving in Ohio a year from now, Strickland's numbers will likely rebound.  Until then, his polling standings may continue to weaken.  It's the trend line that has everyone in ODP breathing in a paper bag.  The reality is that it won't take a substantial bump to get Strickland back into above 50% territory again.  Once the budget impasse is resolved, voter negativity may lessen some, too.

And, it should also be noted that Strickland still leads against Kasich by a significant margin, and Mike DeWine has not announced any intention to run for the GOP gubernatorial nomination.  Strickland's favorability, at its lowest point, is still substantially higher than any of the potential GOP candidates.  Also, the GOP candidates are likely unknown and there's a potential that Ohioans may not exactly take a shine to them once they become known alternatives (of course, the opposite could happen, too.)

Strickland knew he'd have a fight on his hands.  And he's a fighter.  This poll is a wake-up call for Democrats not to get complacent just because we've done well in the State the last two elections.  Frankly, if we didn't win in 2006, we didn't deserve to be a political party.  Next year, we'll likely have a fight on our hands.

But the person who should most be concerned about this poll has to be Lee Fisher, who wears Ohio's economy like a lodestone around his neck since he voluntarily took on as his pet project economic development in Ohio as Lt. Governor.  The fact that Ohio presently has only an interim Director in that key economic development post is a result of Fisher's Senate campaign.

I don't know if Jennifer Brunner is exactly bulletproof on voter anger over the economy, but I know that Lee Fisher is practically wearing a magnet for criticism.  And Rob Portman would like nothing better than to have a Democratic opponent he can present to Ohio voters as the person to blame for Ohio's economy.  I don't think I'm far off base saying that support for Strickland has been deeper and wider than it's been for Fisher.  If this has made Strickland vunerable, you can't help but wonder what it could do to Fisher.