Kucinich Yes Vote Will Give Him Better Legacy
So Dennis Kucinich was just on CNN stating that he has changed his vote and will now vote Yea on the health care reform legislation the House of Representatives is currently considering. I'm really glad to hear that, not just because it will make it easier to get the bill passed, but also because it will give him a much better legacy when he leaves the U.S. House of Representatives in 2012.
Wait. How can I be so sure he's leaving?
Well, the math is pretty simple. Ohio currently has 18 congressional seats, which were drawn after the 2000 census for approximately 630,000 persons per district. Cuyahoga County, which had just shy of 1.4 million residents at the 2000 census, has two congressional districts to itself, including Kucinich's, and two more that are shared with other counties.
Given that Ohio's population has stagnated, estimated to have grown only by 150,000 over the course of the 2000s, when the 2010 reapportionment is done this year Ohio is all but certain to lose two congressional seats. This will reduce our Congressional delegation to 16 members, and our number of electoral votes to 18. A little quick math shows that with only 16 congressional seats, Ohio's congressional districts will need to be re-drawn for approximately 720,000 residents per person. Meanwhile, Cuyahoga County's population has fallen by roughly 100,000 during the decade. So instead of having two districts all to itself, Cuyahoga will more than likely have only one to itself, plus one more to share with other counties. Which district will stay wholly within Cuyahoga come 2012?
If I had to bet, I would bet it's Marcia Fudge's Ohio 11th. There will be tremendous pressure to maintain that as a majority-minority seat. In order to do so, it will leave Kucinich's 10th district with the whiter, more conservative less-than-half of Cuyahoga County as well as having to pick up part of (or all of?) either Lorain or Medina counties. I simply cannot see him being re-elected to a district reconfigured like that.
Why does his legacy matter? It might, and I stress might, enable him to be elected to a different political office if he's interested in running again. He could end up on the new Cuyahoga County Council. Or he could take the Tom Sawyer route and go from Congress to Columbus. Either way, I'll bet this consideration crossed his mind when he was debating whether to switch sides on the health care bill. Don't think it was all about President Obama's or Speaker Pelosi's entreaties.
That's the sound of me eating my words about DK like tasty kibble. I said his "arrogance" in voting No and "pretense of principle" left him being neither perfect nor progressive. He's still not perfect, but he restored himself to the ranks of progressives today -- for whatever reason -- and he is to be commended.
You are right that his district may well be diced up and shared with Lorain or someplace but I'm not sure he will lose in 2012. The Ohio legislature and the next governor -- (god forbid it be Kasich) -- will decide the new district lines under the current Ohiio constitution and new census. (That process may change too if a balot issue goes this year). So who knows what they will look -- both the lines and the statehouse inhabitants after 2010? Carving up Ohio into 16 districts in early 2011 will bring all congressional incumbents flocking to Columbus to protect their 2010 turf. Who knows who those incumbents will be in the crazed anti-DC atmosphere? Too many variables to count DK out yet. Let's just hope his vote counts this weekend and Congress does the right thing.
I fail to see what's so "progressive" about the bill under consideration.
There's no public option, despite the number of Democrats who claimed to support it....when it had no chance of passing.
So now we stand to be stuck with a system still 100% run by insurance companies who's only motive is profit & who will now have millions more customers.
And I hope no one is naive enough to believe this bill actually make insurance more affordable, that premiums won't continue to skyrocket & that it will keep insurance companies from still denying coverage for pre-existing conditions.
That so many other countries get this right & some of us appear willing to settle for whatever they think will merely win elections here is a shame.
AmberCat, let's assume for a minute that Cuyahoga County's 2010 census population will be 1.29 million (I think that's generous, but its just for the sake of discussion). Let's assume you make Marcia Fudge's district entirely within Cuy Co. That's 720,000 consumed in that district. Now you've got 570,000 left over for Dennis' district, which means he needs to pick up 150,000 from outside the county. Assuming an east/west split as we both are, the most logical places for the 10th to pick up that population would be Lorain or Medina counties. And quite frankly I can't see Dennis being elected in a district that takes in major parts of those counties.
With the population requirements increasing while Cuyahoga County's population is decreasing, it may not be possible to maintain the Ohio 11th as majority-minority. But its definitely possible to create it as an overwhelmingly blue district who will retain a minority representative.
For Betty Sutton, I believe that what should happen there is to make it more of an Akron-centered district. Instead of Summit Co. being split between three congressional districts, have it just be in one. I'd have to check, but I believe a Summit-Portage district would be right around 720,000.