Handicapping the Senate race
Submitted by modernesquire on Mon, 01/12/2009 - 11:29am.
Because this is what we discuss when a prominent election official suddenly announces their retirement, let the speculation about Voinovich's replacement BEGIN!
Until the nomination petitions are due, I will not be convinced that Rob Portman will be running for anything other than this U.S. Senate. And until the Republican primary results are certified, I will not be convinced that anyone other than Rob Portman will be the nominee. Simple enough? Portman has a Washington resume, and his public statements has shown a stronger preference for the Senate than to ever really run for Governor. DeWine wants to make a comeback, you say? Yeah, the base prefers Portman and is hungry for a statewide win.
A year ago, I would have made Lee Fisher the hands-on favorite for this nomination, regardless if Voinovich retired or not. But that's before the national economy went thermonuclear, thus making his track record at the Ohio Department of Development a more viable campaign issue. Has Lee Fisher done anything in the past three years to warrant this promotion? I'll leave that for the primary voters to decide, but Fisher is probably the institutional favorite at this point if he runs. Don't be surprised if the state's economy is the stated reason for Fisher to stay put.
My grassroots favorite pick is not Paul Hackett. It's Congressman Tim Ryan. Ryan is young, motivational, and become a blogsphere celebrity with his floor speeches about the Iraq war. However, Ryan hasn't been in office long. He has been awarded some plum committee assignments in this Congress, and a safe Congressional seat is a hard thing to give up, especially when you know that Jim Traficant is about to be released from prison and EVERYONE is wondering what he's going to do when he's released. On the legislative achievement side, Ryan's resume is rather thin, but that's an issue insiders focus on far more than voters really care about.
From what I know about Ryan, he's an ideological match for areas in Ohio that Democrats historically haven't done well in (think the 1990s' NEO/urban-centered strategy).
I want to include Columbus Mayor Mike Coleman. I think he's a bright guy who led the way to soften central Ohio for Democratic victory, but his wife's public struggles with alcoholism is a problem. I wouldn't be surprised if he's heading to D.C. for the Obama Administration.
Jennifer Brunner has been mentioned, and she'd be a welcomed voice in the U.S. Senate. However, if she leaves the Secretary of State seat vunerable in 2010 when the Apportionment Board is at stake, I'm blaming Chris Redfern. :)
The Republicans are hungry for a statewide victory and will be focused on this race. I sense the political tides which favored us in 2006 in 2008 will recede. For these reasons, I'd classify this race as leaning Republican right now. If I'm not alone in that assessment, then we may have a harder time recruiting a competitive challenger to Portman.
Sure, Space Could Run
Submitted by Nick D on Mon, 01/12/2009 - 12:14pm.
Modern, the PD mentioned him as a possible player, too, and I have to agree.
Ohio is all but certain to lose 2 House seats in the coming 2010 reapportionment, and Space's seat would be vulnerable to elimination. That gives him plenty of incentive to run.
Space has also proven to be a tireless worker and I wouldn't bet against him in anything he campaigns for in the future.
Depends on the Apportionment Board...
Submitted by modernesquire on Mon, 01/12/2009 - 12:18pm.
I haven't gamed it yet, but I think who controls the Apportioinment Board is largely going to dictate which two House seats are vunerable. I'd say you could see Turner and Boehner's seats merge, for instance.
True, but
Submitted by Himself on Mon, 01/12/2009 - 12:51pm.
Re-districting and reapportionment. Terms of art that may effectively mean the same thing, but in Ohio are distinct processes.
The Ohio Apportionment Board majority will in a remote way control the Congressional boundaries.
The Ohio Apportionment Board will draw the boundaries for the Ohio General Assembly in 2011, based on the fresh decennial census data from 2010. Those boundaries are currently drawn to favor Republican majorities in the Ohio Senate and House.
The Ohio General Assembly will then enact legislation that draws boundaries for Ohio's U.S. House districts -- one man, one vote and all that. Presumably, re-apportionment, if Brunner and Strickland are re-elected, will produce D majorities, and following that, favor Ohio Democrats election in our congressional districts.
SEO
Submitted by David Potts on Mon, 01/12/2009 - 4:30pm.
Southeastern Ohio probably won't lose a seat (look at how big the 6th and 18th already are), but it's very likely that the 18th could be modified to not go so far north to Space's home in Dover. For example what if they merged the 6th and 18th, then split them into separate north and south districts? That would likely leave Wilson and Space in the same turf.
As for Space, I can seriously imagine him jumping into this race in certain scenarios. He's managed to get a firm grip on his district, shown himself to be a fundraising powerhouse, and he works his ass off. I also dare say that Space accomplished far more than Ryan did in the House last session.
Members of Congress ...
Submitted by Pelikan on Mon, 01/12/2009 - 5:21pm.
... ought to be focused on protecting what they've already got. They're going to be making some tough votes over the next 12 to 18 months, and I don't think that 2010 will be the year to rise from obscurity and run for the U.S. Senate from a CD. These folks need to focus on protecting what they've already got ... none of the names I've been hearing have been around long enough to run for Senate. Do they want to fight the Lee Fisher juggernaut. Now that I've seen "Swing State" I've seen the dude shirtless. You do not want to f*%# with Lee.
Pelikan
Addendum...
Submitted by modernesquire on Mon, 01/12/2009 - 12:02pm.
The founder of this site, Russell, would pound me for not mentioning that the # 1 used by the Democratic candidate against Portman will be trade. As Bush's former Trade Representative and Director of the Office of Management and Budget, the economy and "free trade" policies will be the most obvious offensive against Portman.
I would agree that Fisher is
Submitted by BenKeeler on Mon, 01/12/2009 - 4:20pm.
I would agree that Fisher is puzzling. There seems to be little doubt that he views the Lt. Gov job as his swan song. I have always wondered why he took the Ohio Development job - knowing that not much good could come out of it.
The Democrats will have a hard time clearing the primary field - as these opportunities dont come long very often. If they can settle on one major candidate, I will be impressed. With the fact that 2 house seats are likely to be lost, it seems to be it will be tough to do.
that should be "little doubt
Submitted by BenKeeler on Mon, 01/12/2009 - 4:21pm.
that should be "little doubt that he does not view the Lt. Gov job as his swan song."
Why Ohio's mired
Submitted by Jill on Mon, 01/12/2009 - 5:53pm.
Talk about uninspiring. Nothing personal against most of these choices - Lee Fisher and Jennifer in particular, because I happen to like them both personally.
But COME ON. Fisher for Dem - fine, cool. I would like to see Jennifer Brunner remain in SOS just because I think she suits it and it suits her - and the apportionment thing - fine.
But otherwise - hello? All aging white men - every single one. Did you all learn NOTHING about what Sarah Palin did to the elections, if nothing else? Excited people.
I swear, even I think I must be on the dole for Mary Taylor the way I keep writing about her and maybe this just shows how incredibly feeble my knowledge and judgement are when it comes to party politics.
But I think these guesses and speculations are incredibly lame. Maybe that suits you for this state, but I for one think we can and should do better.
I'm okay with Ryan but there's some ambition thing about him that I don't like - that committee appointment he just got - work it.
Maybe we're supposed to want to keep things low key in order to not draw too much attention, given Fishers name recognition already.
But I don't know. This whole scenario is far from settled. And let me just say, #1 I said more than a year before Clinton lost that she would not be the nominee and #2 from the very first day of Palin's announcement as McCain's pick, that it was a miscalculation specifically because of passing over and the anger that engendered.
There are some sentiments people never get over. I'd be very careful about being sure of anyone right now - except the ability for Mary Taylor to excite, if she wants to.
Aging?
Submitted by Himself on Mon, 01/12/2009 - 6:04pm.
All "aging white men.. "
Hey, I started aging at day one. Jennifer is 51, I believe. At what point is someone aging? Husted's younger than she is.
I'd love to have another aging woman in statewide office. Who?
Oh okay
Submitted by Jill on Mon, 01/12/2009 - 7:20pm.
When you're right you're right - everyone is aging, but they aren't necessarily OLD or AGED. Agreed.
Re: other women for statewide...I will think on it - but this is why I push the pipeline work.
Kevin
Submitted by Himself on Tue, 01/13/2009 - 10:24am.
And, let us not forget our 38 year old African-American State Treasurer as well as the fact that we tried to elect a 40 something woman in Barbara Sykes.
We do try.
I agree with Taylor or Brunner
Submitted by modernesquire on Mon, 01/12/2009 - 6:08pm.
But they are both uniquely qualified and, frankly, exceptional in their current positions, and there's enormous political pressure to keep them there through 2010 because of the Apportionment Board.
For the record, Taylor has publicly stated that she's thinking about the U.S. Senate race (check out DDN's site). Brunner's statement is cryptic. Both are facing political pressure to stay. I'll say it. A Taylor primary race would be exciting. But too exciting for the ORP bluebloods to handle. Let's face it, Rob Portman is boring. The one thing the Voinovich retirement announcement saves the GOP from deciding is chosing between vanilla and french vanilla in a Portman/Kasich primary.
That's why the Ohio GOP apparetus has gone in full bore mode to annoint Portman within hours of Voinovich's announcement. The fix is in, Jill.
I never said these were inspiring choices. I said these are what we likely are to expect. As the day has progressed, I've heard to suggest Space is moving up and Ryan is staying put. Betty Sutton would be a good mention that nobody has discussed. But I see a quickly united GOP organization and a flat footed Democratic race where anyone is possible.
I could mention that Strickland SHOULD be in consideration has he had been courted to run for years for the U.S. Senate long before anyone talked of him for Governor. He has a much stronger basis to make an argument for a promotion than Fisher. But Ted has too much work left to complete, he's on the Apportionment Board, and he's the head of the ticket.
Ryan an "aging" white man
Submitted by elessar on Mon, 01/12/2009 - 7:11pm.
Granted, Tim is a older than he was in 2002 (as we all are), but he's only 35! Hardly what I would call aging.
Personally, I'd very much like Tim Ryan to run as I think he'd make a great senator. However, that does leave the question of who would succeed him.
Palin also proved a number of other things: how out-of-date cultural politics are becoming in certain areas and how much stupidity people can willingly stand from public officials. She may have excited some people, but she really repulsed many others.
If you no longer recognize the man in the mirror, it's time to step back and see when you stopped being yourself
I think the prospect of
Submitted by O-H...I-O on Mon, 01/12/2009 - 6:28pm.
I think the prospect of losing 2 Congressional seats in the state will be a major factor in who decides to run.
With that in mind, a list of our Democratic Congressional leaders: Steve Driehaus (1), Charlie Wilson (6), Marcy Kaptur (9), Denis Kucinich (10), Marcia Fudge (11), Betty Sutton (13), Mary Jo Kilroy (15), John Boccieri (16), Tim Ryan (17), Zack Space (18)
To begin with, I can't imagine any first term Congressmen running; good-bye Driehaus, Fudge, Kilroy, and Boccieri. That leaves you with Wilson, Kaptur, Kucinich, Sutton, Ryan, and Space.
Kaptur: Could run on a similar platform as Sherrod Brown, arguing against free trade. Her credentials/experience are unquestioned, as she's been in the House since the '82 election. She also has great appeal -- a Catholic from a working class family who was a champion to honor WWII veterans with the Memorial. Her downside would be that she is perhaps in the safest of all seats, and is a high ranking member in a very important committee (Appropriations). If she has Senate ambitions, I think the time would be right for her to run. She's also 62, if she loses she could retire at the age of 64 and be happy -- or she could be a U.S. Senator -- not a bad gig. In the end, she might have too much to lose to run, but I think she would be an appealing figure. Verdict: I think she should, depends on her own ambitions (not necessarily a bad thing -- she is a very powerful Congressional leader and may not want to give it up when she could serve the district as long as she'd like)
Kucinich: He certainly views himself worthy of the position. That said, no. No way, fairly or unfairly, he has consistently been seen as the left wing loonie in each of his past two presidential runs. I can't see himself connecting with the rest of Ohio the way that Brown and Strickland could. I'm not saying he doesn't run, but not a viable candidate. Verdict: No reason to say that he wouldn't do it, but barring a Jack Ryan-esque primary scandal by his opponent, I can not envision a Senator Kucinich.
Sutton: No. Too much to lose. Just 45 and with a good assignment. Also, the same district as Brown -- which, somehow or someway, would be construed as being bad ("Don't let all them NEO liberals run our state!" ~ somewhere in Cincinnati, during a Portman for Senate rally in 2010 if he runs against Sutton). Verdict: no chance, not even a consideration.
Ryan: Has the most to lose and gain. Regardless of redistricting, he should be safe in The Valley. He just entered his 4th term in the House and I am contractually obligated to refer to him as a "Rising Star in the Democratic Party". Now, he could be a rising star in the Senate, or continue his path to stardom in the Senate. Rumor had it he was going to run in '06, but didn't b/c of his divorce. I don't buy it, but I'm not sold that he'll run. I hope he does, but he could also be a very powerful Representative 10 years from now. Verdict: Out; hope he does.
Space/Wilson: Here's where things get interesting. My first instinct was nope, no way. But then again, the prospect of these seats being merged/modified is key. First, there is absolutely no way that these guys square off in a Democratic primary. Second, they are both conservative enough to win statewide like Strickland, which will probably be important because we already have a rather progressive Senator in Sherrod Brown. My original thoughts with Wilson were that he would serve out his seat in the House for a good long while (he's pretty safe), and eventually -- in the Democratic spirit of America -- pave the way for his son Jason to take over. Now factoring in the redistricting goes both ways because it's possible there districts could overlap significantly (this would be especially important if the Southern tip of Wilson's districts moves North, since he is in fact a resident of Space's district). The other side of that coin is that his son, the aforementioned Jason, is a State Senator and will no doubt have his father's interests in mind when it comes to redistricting. I'm not aware of either of their abilities when it comes to fund raising; and, although Wilson is a moderately wealthy man, he's by no means in a situation where he can bank roll a statewide election. It of course is important to point out that both men our both just starting their second term in the House. They by no means have the record that Katpur or Ryan (or Kucinich!) could run on, but I wouldn't rule one of them out. Now Space is young, but is no means in a safe district. In fact, he's in quite the Red District. It might not be a bad idea for the "Accidental Congressman" to get the hell out of that conservative area. If Democratic leadership/Obama falls out of favor with the national opinion, he could be one of the first to go. The question if your Zack Space is how comfortable do you feel tying your fortunes in with Democratic leadership? I would not feel very good. Given history, it's almost impossible to imagine him surviving in the House through the Election of 2014 (getting way ahead of myself, of course, but if Obama were to win reelection (I know, I know, he's still just President-Elect) history shows us that a President is likely to lose seats in his 6th year. If you're Zack Space wouldn't you rather run for the office with more prestige and at the same time get the hell out of a very unsafe seat? It'll take intestinal fortitude to pull the trigger and run for the Senate, but it might be in the best interest of his long-term career. Verdict: Space more likely than Wilson, but both are interesting cases.
Final Thoughts: I think Kaptur is electable, not sure if she has enough motivation to run. Don't rule out Space, I would put him as more likely to run than even Ryan.
....
Other thoughts... Well, I'll let others dissect our non-Congressmen.
Don't forget about Jerry Springer :-D
Ryan more likely to run than Space
Submitted by elessar on Mon, 01/12/2009 - 7:16pm.
I actually think 17th CD will be eliminated in the next redistricting round. The area has lost too much of its population. I foresee Trumbull and Mahoning Counties being added to Wilson's district, moving it northward, while Space takes on some of the border counties from Wilson.
If you no longer recognize the man in the mirror, it's time to step back and see when you stopped being yourself
Marcy Kaptur?
Submitted by modernesquire on Mon, 01/12/2009 - 7:51pm.
I have to admit, Congresswoman Marcy Kaptur deserves a serious mention. Can anyone explain to me, beyond the obvious biological differences, why Kaptur shouldn't be the nominee by Ryan and Space should? I'm sure if she runs it will be something more inspiring than this, but why not Kaptur?
Kaptur
Submitted by O-H...I-O on Mon, 01/12/2009 - 8:57pm.
I agree. I would be all for a Kaptur run. It's just a question of whether or not she's up to it. Running statewide is a taxing experience, while her alternative is to continue to be a Congresswoman with seniority from a safe district. It'd be easy to understand why she might just be content with her current role (again, I don't mean that to sound patronizing or anything -- it's just the truth).
elessar -- You might be right, I can see either side of that argument.
Zack Space?!?