Handicapping the Senate race
Because this is what we discuss when a prominent election official suddenly announces their retirement, let the speculation about Voinovich's replacement BEGIN!
Until the nomination petitions are due, I will not be convinced that Rob Portman will be running for anything other than this U.S. Senate. And until the Republican primary results are certified, I will not be convinced that anyone other than Rob Portman will be the nominee. Simple enough? Portman has a Washington resume, and his public statements has shown a stronger preference for the Senate than to ever really run for Governor. DeWine wants to make a comeback, you say? Yeah, the base prefers Portman and is hungry for a statewide win.
A year ago, I would have made Lee Fisher the hands-on favorite for this nomination, regardless if Voinovich retired or not. But that's before the national economy went thermonuclear, thus making his track record at the Ohio Department of Development a more viable campaign issue. Has Lee Fisher done anything in the past three years to warrant this promotion? I'll leave that for the primary voters to decide, but Fisher is probably the institutional favorite at this point if he runs. Don't be surprised if the state's economy is the stated reason for Fisher to stay put.
My grassroots favorite pick is not Paul Hackett. It's Congressman Tim Ryan. Ryan is young, motivational, and become a blogsphere celebrity with his floor speeches about the Iraq war. However, Ryan hasn't been in office long. He has been awarded some plum committee assignments in this Congress, and a safe Congressional seat is a hard thing to give up, especially when you know that Jim Traficant is about to be released from prison and EVERYONE is wondering what he's going to do when he's released. On the legislative achievement side, Ryan's resume is rather thin, but that's an issue insiders focus on far more than voters really care about.
From what I know about Ryan, he's an ideological match for areas in Ohio that Democrats historically haven't done well in (think the 1990s' NEO/urban-centered strategy).
I want to include Columbus Mayor Mike Coleman. I think he's a bright guy who led the way to soften central Ohio for Democratic victory, but his wife's public struggles with alcoholism is a problem. I wouldn't be surprised if he's heading to D.C. for the Obama Administration.
Jennifer Brunner has been mentioned, and she'd be a welcomed voice in the U.S. Senate. However, if she leaves the Secretary of State seat vunerable in 2010 when the Apportionment Board is at stake, I'm blaming Chris Redfern. :)
The Republicans are hungry for a statewide victory and will be focused on this race. I sense the political tides which favored us in 2006 in 2008 will recede. For these reasons, I'd classify this race as leaning Republican right now. If I'm not alone in that assessment, then we may have a harder time recruiting a competitive challenger to Portman.
Modern, the PD mentioned him as a possible player, too, and I have to agree.
Ohio is all but certain to lose 2 House seats in the coming 2010 reapportionment, and Space's seat would be vulnerable to elimination. That gives him plenty of incentive to run.
Space has also proven to be a tireless worker and I wouldn't bet against him in anything he campaigns for in the future.
Re-districting and reapportionment. Terms of art that may effectively mean the same thing, but in Ohio are distinct processes.
The Ohio Apportionment Board majority will in a remote way control the Congressional boundaries.
The Ohio Apportionment Board will draw the boundaries for the Ohio General Assembly in 2011, based on the fresh decennial census data from 2010. Those boundaries are currently drawn to favor Republican majorities in the Ohio Senate and House.
The Ohio General Assembly will then enact legislation that draws boundaries for Ohio's U.S. House districts -- one man, one vote and all that. Presumably, re-apportionment, if Brunner and Strickland are re-elected, will produce D majorities, and following that, favor Ohio Democrats election in our congressional districts.
Southeastern Ohio probably won't lose a seat (look at how big the 6th and 18th already are), but it's very likely that the 18th could be modified to not go so far north to Space's home in Dover. For example what if they merged the 6th and 18th, then split them into separate north and south districts? That would likely leave Wilson and Space in the same turf.
As for Space, I can seriously imagine him jumping into this race in certain scenarios. He's managed to get a firm grip on his district, shown himself to be a fundraising powerhouse, and he works his ass off. I also dare say that Space accomplished far more than Ryan did in the House last session.
... ought to be focused on protecting what they've already got. They're going to be making some tough votes over the next 12 to 18 months, and I don't think that 2010 will be the year to rise from obscurity and run for the U.S. Senate from a CD. These folks need to focus on protecting what they've already got ... none of the names I've been hearing have been around long enough to run for Senate. Do they want to fight the Lee Fisher juggernaut. Now that I've seen "Swing State" I've seen the dude shirtless. You do not want to f*%# with Lee.
Pelikan
www.clipsandcomment.com
Pelikan
www.clipsandcomment.com
All "aging white men.. "
Hey, I started aging at day one. Jennifer is 51, I believe. At what point is someone aging? Husted's younger than she is.
I'd love to have another aging woman in statewide office. Who?
When you're right you're right - everyone is aging, but they aren't necessarily OLD or AGED. Agreed.
Re: other women for statewide...I will think on it - but this is why I push the pipeline work.
And, let us not forget our 38 year old African-American State Treasurer as well as the fact that we tried to elect a 40 something woman in Barbara Sykes.
We do try.
But they are both uniquely qualified and, frankly, exceptional in their current positions, and there's enormous political pressure to keep them there through 2010 because of the Apportionment Board.
For the record, Taylor has publicly stated that she's thinking about the U.S. Senate race (check out DDN's site). Brunner's statement is cryptic. Both are facing political pressure to stay. I'll say it. A Taylor primary race would be exciting. But too exciting for the ORP bluebloods to handle. Let's face it, Rob Portman is boring. The one thing the Voinovich retirement announcement saves the GOP from deciding is chosing between vanilla and french vanilla in a Portman/Kasich primary.
That's why the Ohio GOP apparetus has gone in full bore mode to annoint Portman within hours of Voinovich's announcement. The fix is in, Jill.
I never said these were inspiring choices. I said these are what we likely are to expect. As the day has progressed, I've heard to suggest Space is moving up and Ryan is staying put. Betty Sutton would be a good mention that nobody has discussed. But I see a quickly united GOP organization and a flat footed Democratic race where anyone is possible.
I could mention that Strickland SHOULD be in consideration has he had been courted to run for years for the U.S. Senate long before anyone talked of him for Governor. He has a much stronger basis to make an argument for a promotion than Fisher. But Ted has too much work left to complete, he's on the Apportionment Board, and he's the head of the ticket.
Granted, Tim is a older than he was in 2002 (as we all are), but he's only 35! Hardly what I would call aging.
Personally, I'd very much like Tim Ryan to run as I think he'd make a great senator. However, that does leave the question of who would succeed him.
Palin also proved a number of other things: how out-of-date cultural politics are becoming in certain areas and how much stupidity people can willingly stand from public officials. She may have excited some people, but she really repulsed many others.
If you no longer recognize the man in the mirror, it's time to step back and see when you stopped being yourself
I actually think 17th CD will be eliminated in the next redistricting round. The area has lost too much of its population. I foresee Trumbull and Mahoning Counties being added to Wilson's district, moving it northward, while Space takes on some of the border counties from Wilson.
If you no longer recognize the man in the mirror, it's time to step back and see when you stopped being yourself