[UPDATED] Dispatch falls all over itself promoting Rep. Ted Celeste for Speaker

This article appeared in the Dispatch on Election Day and therefore got overlooked in the all the E-Day news. However, now that the municipal races have passed it is time to start talking about 2008. As has been emphasized over and over and over again, we are only four seats short of taking the majority in the Ohio House. Arguably, Franklin County could be the source of two or even three of those seats. Local Democrats are giddy about the prospect of using gains across the county to retake the House and propel Celeste onto the Speaker's dais. From the Dispatch:

During a Franklin County Democratic Ballot Breakfast on Oct. 24, county party Chairman William A. Anthony Jr. introduced the Grandview Heights Democrat as the next speaker of the Ohio House.

Two days later, at a private luncheon with about 100 people, Democratic presidential hopeful U.S. Sen. Barack Obama also introduced Celeste as the next speaker.

"I don't want it to go to my head," Celeste said with a laugh. "There's lots of stuff to do before we get to that point."

That hasn't stopped some local Democrats from getting excited about the prospect of having a House speaker from central Ohio.

Obviously, the Dispatch has got themselves in a giddy little twist about the prospect as well. It makes sense because everyone loves to see the clout their local pols rise. The last Speaker from our area was Republican Jo Ann Davidson who left office in 2000. I think this article also suggests that the Dispatch would like to see the Democrats retake the House. This also makes sense as there is no local candidate for leadership on the Republican side of the aisle.

However, we do have take a fair account of the situation. The Dispatch covers three main points which I think are a fairly good summary of where things stand and what needs to happen:

Celeste, a business owner and younger brother of former Gov. Richard F. Celeste, is careful when talking about his future, realizing that to become the first Democratic House speaker since Vernal G. Riffe Jr. in 1994, three things -- none of them easy -- must happen:

• Get re-elected. Though most think Celeste is a favorite in 2008 against Upper Arlington City Councilman Tim Rankin, the 24th is still a Republican-leaning district.

• Win the House. Democrats need a four-seat pickup to take control of the chamber. Since the state created the current 99-member House in 1967, no party has taken control of the chamber when it had not drawn the district boundaries. Also, House Republicans next year will be well-funded.

• Get caucus support. If the first two happen, Celeste would still need a majority of his colleagues to back him for speaker. A number of other Democrats have expressed interest in the job.

"No matter what kind words you might get on the outside, or a desire to be helpful on the outside, it's your colleagues who will make that selection," Celeste said. "The challenge is to be an ideal leader when you have opportunities to demonstrate that."

Celeste certainly understands the challenges he faces in becoming the next Speaker of the Ohio House. Unlike some of his rivals within the caucus, Ted will have to expend energy and resources in his reelection campaign next fall. His opponent, Upper Arlington City Councilman Tim Rankin, will likely put up a spirited fight. However, Rankin's handpicked replacement for his spot on Council, Leslie Heath, went down in a humiliating defeat yesterday. While the other four candidates all ran relatively close, Heath lagged nearly 1300 votes, or roughly 5%, behind her nearest rival. This could speak volumes about Rankin's own support in UA, an area of the district he must win by a massive margin in order to unseat Celeste. Rankin's cadre of right-wing rabble rousers were also soundly rejected when they went on a homophobic quest to remove all gay themed news materials from the Arlington Public Library a few years ago. Celeste will have plenty of resources to do battle and win, and he has advantages in both incumbency and likability.

As to retaking the House, Franklin County offers several opportunities for pick ups. In the 22nd District, 2006 candidate and Celeste ally John Carney is making another bid. Carney pulled 47% against popular Rep. Jim Hughes last time, and will be running for the open seat in 2008. He is considered one of the strongest candidates in Franklin County. District 20, which incumbent Rep. Jim McGregor only won by 400 votes in '06 is considered another strong opportunity for the Democrats if a candidate emerges. Districts 19 (open seat) and 21 (Freshman Rep. Kevin Bacon narrowly won in '06) are longer shots, but are not out of the realm of possibility. Three of the four seats we need could all be in Central Ohio. Of course, the Republicans aren't going to let the House get away from them without one hell of a fight and will make the best they can of contested races in all corners of the state.

Finally, caucus support. This is much more unpredictable. Celeste is a close ally of Governor Strickland and is a known and liked commodity in Democratic circles. However, Reps. Szollosi, Book, Hagan, and possibly others should all be considered leadership candidates. There are some rumors that Szollosi already has the Speaker's gavel locked up, but I doubt that anyone can accurately take the caucus' collective temperature this far out. After all, we don't even know what the map is going to look like a year from now. Everything will depend on if we can retake the House, the margin of our majority, and where in the state those victories are won. Geography, money, and old fashioned political skill are all going to count.

I'm incredibly biased, but I'd love nothing more than to see Ted and Ted running Ohio. It appears that the Columbus Dispatch and the Franklin County Democratic Party are with me.

UPDATE: Got a good tip this morning via email:

Just caught your latest post. The chatter up this way is that Armond
Budish might be angling hard for Speaker as well. He's got no known
challengers and ran unopposed last time. Oh, plus he's got a
fundraiser coming up that, from the host committee alone, might bring
in $25-50K. I don't recall what he raised last year, but it was sick
for someone running unopposed.

I overlooked Budish and that was a mistake on my part. He is one hell of a fundraiser and will likely never have any competition for his seat. He also hails from East Cleveland. I really think geography will play a big part, at least initially, in the leadership race.