Crunch time in the Democratic Senate Primary
Here's the shorter version of my earlier post: Tim Russo and I both sniffed this out back in March. Fisher was going to focus on maximizing early fundraising so that his numbers compared to Brunner would lead to process stories that could help him push Brunner out before there really was a primary campaign.
The problem with that strategy is that if Brunner doesn't bite, Fisher will lose steam once his donor base is largely tapped out.
The first quarterly report didn't do the trick. The second one didn't either. If this third one doesn't do the trick, it's only a matter of time before Brunner could be outfundraising Fisher. Yes, you read that right. This may be the darkest moment for the Brunner campaign, but if they can get through it, they might just turn the corner.
Tim's right, the entire primary race boils down to Brunner's commitment. Fisher's fundraising strategy has been effective in creating a perception that she's not really going to be on the primary ballot. It's a very high-stakes risk though because the longer Brunner stays in, the more Fisher's campaign finance advantage starts to crumble.
Brunner has to weather the storm Fisher's strategist created, but if she does, she may find smoothier sailing than Fisher will have.
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