Buckeye State Blog - Ohio Primary Analysis - Comments

Primary Analysis Math

DelCo Dem — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 17:59:43 -0800

Very interesting post, but is this just based upon "gut feeling"? Although the poll is pretty stale given some recent decisive primary victories by Obama, the last poll I saw (about 10 days ago) was that Clinton holds more than a 2-to-1 lead over Obama among Ohio Democrats (February 3- Dispatch). Granted that three weeks to go before the primary leaves more than enough time for Obama to even things up, but I am very interested in the basis of your math.

Is this possible?

kryscam — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 16:08:50 -0800

Dear Jerid, I am a resident of Columbus, but originally from Chauncey, Oh which is in Athens County. I am an Obama supporter, just to disclose my affiliation, but I fear the Democratic Chairman and party might endorse Hillary Clinton. I know he was quoted months before in the NY times saying he and the party would be neutral, but last week he got involved in a local race in Athens County. In the Ohio University Post the headline reads this: Governor, state democrats support Warren's re-election http://www.thepost.ohiou.edu/Articles/News/2008/02/08/22785/ Above I have put the article, my true fear is that there will be some type of weak endorsement of HRC, by the party as they depend on Ohio to stay competitive. Seeing how in the past the Party responds to your questions, hopefully you could get some clarification on this action of the Chairman. Please let me know if I am being paranoid?

One correction

walkswillhaunt — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 12:16:45 -0800

Athens County is split into CD 6 and CD 18, and OU is in 6, not 18. Likely to make Obama stronger in 6 than is reflected here, perhaps weaker in 18. Out-of-town reporters -- Ohio University matters, no joke -- turns out more students than you'd think and is the hub of Democratic activity in Southeast Ohio. For perspective -- when the gay marriage ban was on the ballot in 2004, 87 out of 88 counties -- including Cuyahoga, where Cleveland is -- voted for it. Athens County voted against it.

Ohio Primary Analysis

pbratt — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 09:21:02 -0800

This is a real good post. It's a pretty definitive piece on how our delegate breakdown works. Serious. A REAL GOOD POST. Read it. Do it now.
However, it's long. So if you just want to skip ahead to the district by district analysis, that's fine. But read it. It saved me a lot of work. -Jerid

I love Ohio. Having lived in Columbus from 2002-2003, I got to enjoy life in the biggest small town that allowed for a lot of walking, and plenty of urban exploring.

I also appreciate Ohio’s unique political makeup. I can only think of two states (Missouri and Virginia) that have the same diverse political cultures that make one state in reality five different states. While Ohio’s sharp political divisions are not as likely to be displayed in the Democratic Primary on March 4, the state will still be a challenge for any campaign to gain victory. Just ask John Kerry.

Since people always ask me who going to win state X or state Y, I figured it might be good to offer an analysis of Ohio’s upcoming Democratic Primary. Full disclosure note now: I’m a Barak Obama supporter, so take this analysis as you will, although I have tried to be open minded to a Hillary Clinton victory in this analysis, and there are areas of the state where she will do very well on March 4.

Let’s begin!