Obama Projects Clinton Ohio Win; Clinton Deems Ohio the "Firewall" State

Administrator — Thu, 07 Feb 2008 07:13:56 -0800

And I think that's a fair projection for the Obama camp to make, what with Hillary's institutional support, hand from the Governor, etc. Tucked into an article about something entirely different, Bloomberg's got the goods:

Obama's advisers are predicting victories in 19 of the remaining 27 Democratic primaries and caucuses, with Clinton winning the big states of Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to the scenario attached to a spreadsheet showing the campaign's Super Tuesday delegate breakdown.

...

Just as Clinton won some of the most populous states on Super Tuesday, Obama's campaign scenario forecasts she will win the contests in Ohio and Texas on March 4 and Pennsylvania on April 22. Still, Democratic Party rules will give her only a few more delegates than Obama if he can keep her margin of victory narrow.

This projection is all part of a larger "big picture" approach to the nomination the Obama camp is floating, where they're looking at where they stand now in regards to the delegate battle.

Barack Obama's advisers are anticipating the possibility of a Democratic presidential race deadlocked past the last primary, and the outcome may hinge on a fight over whether delegations from Florida and Michigan get seats at the party's national convention in Denver.

One scenario prepared for the Illinois senator's campaign and released inadvertently yesterday with another document projects Obama will end up in June with 1,806 of the delegates who select the party's nominee to 1,789 for New York Senator Hillary Clinton. That is short of the number needed to win the nomination.

If I had to forecast Ohio at this point, I'd also put it in the Clinton column. Afterall, Team Hillary has all but declared Ohio the firewall against the Obama movement.

“Clearly the number of delegates to be harvested from big states like New York and Massachusetts and New Jersey and California, Texas and Ohio, you know, make them particularly attractive because there’s a lot of return on your investment,” Mrs. Clinton said Wednesday at a news conference in Virginia.

Afterward, one Clinton adviser explained the focus on March 4 this way: “There’s a chance we may not win a single primary or caucus in February, so we’re banking on Ohio and Texas.

So there you have it, to keep her nomination dreams alive, Hillary absolutely has to win the Buckeye State. So Ohio Clinton Supporters, whatcha' gonna do? Ohio Obama supporters, whatcha gonna do?

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Obama Projects Clinton Ohio Win; Clinton Deems Ohio the "Firewall" State