We've Already Won

Jerid — Tue, 11 Dec 2007 04:01:26 -0700

Right now staffers are starting to wake, folks are most likely getting into the Weirauch office, and copies of the Toledo Blade are dropping around OH-5 with final stories and tales of this remarkable special election. And of course - to keep things interesting - temperatures around Bowling Green are in the low thirties with a side of freezing rain (for fun and all). And the conditions sorrounding all of this - from the weather, to the national excitement, to the boots on the ground, or the depressed GOP attitude, or the ache for change - make things perfect for an upset.

And so that's what I'm forecasting. I, like a lot of my friends, tend to believe last night's election eve leak that Bob Latta's internal have Robin Weirauch up by 4 points. There's no reason for Democrats to leak or spin that sort of information, afterall, we're expected to lose. Setting a high bar for yourself never makes sense. And Republicans, many of whom are angry with Bob, have all the reason in the world to start bailing on his campaign at this juncture. Not to mention the fact that BSB got confirmation from some very high sources that the poll is legit.

So, taking a leap of faith and using my best guestimate powers - I and Plunderbund are both projecting/hoping for a Weirauch victory in the range of 51%. Lord knows it's possible, especially since turnout is projected at between 20 to 25%. And a last minute surge of some negative GOP press may help us cap things off at the polls, such as the Toledo Blades reminder to voters this morning that Republican leadership abandoned Bob for lost.

The special election for the late Mr. Gillmor's seat has attracted national attention, especially in blogs and online news outlets.

The blog www.Politico.com stirred up comment over the weekend with the report that U.S. Rep. John Boehner (R., Ohio) had not come to campaign in Mr. Latta's district, without suggesting a reason.

Brad Bauman, spokesman for Mrs. Weirauch, declared, "Representative Latta couldn't even convince John Boehner, the leader of House Republicans and congressional district neighbor, to come campaign with him."

The report drew outrage from Republicans, who said Mr. Boehner has helped raise money and provided volunteers to help with Mr. Latta's race.

"John Boehner has been extremely helpful. His staff has been supportive," said Matthew Parker, a spokesman for Mr. Latta. "He's been nothing but helpful to Bob's campaign."

Mr. Parker said the rising role of electronic media has had a mixed effect. "There are some blogs that are supportive. There's some that try to cause controversy," Mr. Parker said.

Numerous bloggers have used the platform of the Internet to comment regularly on the campaign.

Regardless of how we perform at the polls todays, we've already won. Republicans are in disarray in OH-5, and largely angry at their nominee for a lackluster performance. Discontent towards Steve Buehrer from within the GOP is high because of efforts from those associated with him to keep Latta from office. We've forced the RNCC to spend $428 thousand dollars that they didn't have in a district they didn't expect to fight for. And by competing in a district with a Republican preference of PVI +R10, we've shown 200 Republican incumbents that no matter where they're at, how partisan their district is, or how strong their incumbency is, they're not safe. And of course at the end of the day, we might have the added bonus of increasing both the Ohio Democratic Congressional Delegation to eight, and our national majority to 234.

If we win today, or come within a dagger's edge, mark my words, there'll be a new wave of Republican retirements across the country as GOPers point to Ohio's 5th district and quiver. And if we lose? No big deal, we were never supposed to this race.

Throughout the day 2010Buckeye will have updates for us from Bowling Green. Also, this evening BSB will be tracking election results as they break, or you can check out the Secretary of State's website at your own convenience. And of course, to everyone that's helped out in the 5th, donated, phonebanked, or followed along. Thanks for your help. Of course, there's still a few hours left to help through the virtual phone bank by emailing phonebank4robin@gmail.com.

Let's go Robin.

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We've Already Won