Buckeye State Blog - Strickland by 20%, Brown by 8% in Dispatch Poll - Comments

Honestly though

Evan Tribley — Mon, 24 Jul 2006 11:57:15 -0700

I don't think having a huge youth vote turnout for Blackwell will help him at all either. I have a hard time finding students at my pretty much ultra conservative college (Ohio Northern University) that can defend Ken Blackwell. My favorite thing to point out as College Dems President is the box of a few thousand voter registration forms sent to us by the Sec. of State. We could never use them because Blackwell of course sent those out to us in 2004 on regular paper stock and then made his infamous rule about the card stock the voter registration forms had to be on. Every time I look at that box I feel disinfranchised and I really think thats the feeling by most young people.

Blackwell can't depend on the youth vote because unfortunately most of us don't vote and secondly those of us who do are for the most part completely dissatisfied with him. That's coming from a student with a college by my estimates a 15:1 republican to democrat ratio. Kinda weird isn't it?

Yeah 27% sucks for them. But

dirtgirl — Sun, 23 Jul 2006 14:27:27 -0700

Yeah 27% sucks for them. But on the bright side, all they need is 88% of the undecideds to break their way to win.

seriously, though, let's hope that this helps to dry up some of Blackwell's potential to raise money, especially out of state. Could really lessen the impact of the swiftboat-style attacks that are surely on the drawing board.

Wow.....

modernesquire — Sun, 23 Jul 2006 11:36:34 -0700

Sorry, but I keep thinking about Blackwell being at 27%.�� I think this comment over at RAB says it best:

Ken Blackwell=Rob Burch

I can't recall a time where I've seen a Republican poll soooo badly at the top of the ticket in Ohio.�� To have a canidate with nearly universal name recognition in Ohio and a record of 3-0 in statewide races to have only the support of barely over a quarter of the electorate underscores how much the ORP is split and lost the independent vote.

The envirpnment couldn't be much worse for the ORP.�� It's like anti-1994.

Incidentially, a new Rasmussen Reports poll on the race should be released later this week.

Strickland for the Aged...

J-Dog — Sun, 23 Jul 2006 11:29:18 -0700

The most telling demographic in the Dispatch poll showed that Strickland leads among all age groups (except in the 18-24 range where he's tied), and that the Strickland lead gets bigger and bigger as the ages increase.�� Assuming that holds true, Blackwell better be hoping for a huge turnout among those under age 30.�� If that happens, it'll be a first.�� Collectively, between ages 35 and 75, Strickland has huge leads across the board.�� Hopefully, that translates to a similar lead among the most likely voters!

Agreed, to a point...

modernesquire — Sun, 23 Jul 2006 10:16:49 -0700

I agree that I think it's difficult to imagine a scenerio where Blackwell changes the course of this election. Let's not get complacent. Just because this is the best we all can remember a statewide Democrat doing against a Republican in Ohio doesn't mean it's a sure bet. I for one would feel more confident if Strickland was consistently polling above the 50% magic mark beyond the margin of error. There is still four months left to the campaign, no real air war has started, no debates, and people aren't paying attention to it right now. It's too early to have a winner declared and for us to move on elsewhere. This race will tighten, and will probably tighten quickly come September. Let's not forget that Ken Blackwell has aspirations higher than just being Ohio's governor. And he knows that if he doesn't win this election, the rationale for him being a bigger player in national Republican politics takes a huge hit. So Blackwell won't go down quietly or easily. He's going to do everything in and out of the book to get what he wants. Cause if he loses, he's down and out for good.

This race is over

staff — Sun, 23 Jul 2006 10:07:01 -0700

Absent any nuclear bomb dropping on Strickland HQ - this race is over. There is simply no data, nor has there been any data to suggest that Blackwell is even close to being a serious challenger. He's as credible as Alan Keyes. Period. Only his ultra controversial style even has people talking about this race any more. the more he tries to "define" strickland, the more ridiculous he sounds and the less votes he is going to get. I think we are about to witness the worst GOP Gov performance in Ohio in recent memory.

Hold on, staff

modernesquire — Sun, 23 Jul 2006 09:21:15 -0700

I think it's too early to conclude that Blackwell's outreach to African-American voters is a failure. After all, he has picked up the endorsement of several African-American ministers from central Ohio and the mayor of East Cleveland.

The real issue is whether Blackwell can attract enough African-American voters to offset Strickland's gain of independents and moderate Republicans? This poll suggests he cannot.

My full analysis of the poll is at my blog, but some of it bears repeating here.�� Strickland is dominating every demographic group.�� He has an advantage in both genders, all races, almost all age groups, all income groups, all education levels, and union and non-union households.�� He has a sizeable geographic advantage in all but southwestern and western Ohio.

If this poll is an accurate predictor, it means that Blackwell needs to win over 84% of the current undecided vote to win.�� That's a pretty tall order for someone who has the name recognition advantage.

I'm heading out right now

AmberCat — Sun, 23 Jul 2006 08:35:50 -0700

to help boost that margin. I'm pinning my Strickland button onto my Jennifer Brunner t-shirt and gathering my pamphlets together. Mr. Out-of-Touch Blackwell is going to be looking for a new line of work after November. Maybe the World Harvest Church can find a job for him!

I think

staff — Sun, 23 Jul 2006 07:41:49 -0700

until evidence surfaces beyond Blackwell's wishful thinking, the whole "blacks are gonna vote for blackwell" idea needs to be kicked to the curb. There has simply been no evidence of it. The real story, and it's been the story since day one - is that Strickland is drawing massive amounts of right leaning independents and moderate republicans away from Blackwell. The GOP efforts to paint him as some out of touch liberal is failing and will continue to fail - because it simply isn't true. People can already see that it is Blackwell who is out of the mainstream. Very out of the mainstream in fact and they want nothing to do with him. What's even better news for us - EVERY poll coming out, for Strickland and others is showing the same thing. There is no data the GOP can hold onto to show they are going to get anything other than beat badly in November. The only question left to answer is - just how badly ? Right now it looks devastating.

Some of the internals

Ohio2006 — Sun, 23 Jul 2006 07:25:52 -0700

I should have noted that I also posted about this on my blog, Ohio2006, where I have added the following info about the internal numbers:

The internal numbers are very interesting. In the gubernatorial race, Strickland does much better among Democrats (81%-2%) than Blackwell among Republicans (61%-12%). Strickland picks up 18% of those who voted for Bush in 2004 and 28% of those who voted for Gov. Bob Taft (R) in 2002. Independents favor Strickland by 47% to 14%, and in a very surprising finding black voters favor Strickland by 68% to 14%; Blackwell's support in previous statewide contests has ranged from 20% to 30%. This latter number should be treated with caution, however, because there were only 99 black respondents in the poll. In the senatorial race, DeWine's Republican support is also soft but not as soft as Blackwell's. Brown polls at 82% to 8% among Democrats, while DeWine's numbers for Republicans are 75% to 8%, with independents going to Brown by 42% to 27%. Brown picks up 13% of Bush voters and 22% of Taft voters. Union households favor Brown by 60% to 24%, and black voters also favor Brown by 78% to 10%. It should be noted that neither poll leader is above the important 50% line, and the numbers of undecided voters are sufficient to swing the results in either contest.

Strickland by 20%, Brown by 8% in Dispatch Poll

Ohio2006 — Sun, 23 Jul 2006 06:54:52 -0700

A huge 20% lead for gubernatorial hopeful Rep. Ted. Strickand (D-Lisbon), and a significant 8% lead for senatorial candidate Rep. Sherrod Brown (D-Avon), according to a poll by the Columbus Dispatch released today: