As Campaign 2010 Begins, Wither George Voinovich?

In 2004, while George W. Bush was pulling out a squeaker in Ohio in order to capture its 20 electoral votes and a new 4 year term, incumbent GOP Sen. George Voinovich was crushing then State Sen. Eric Fingerhut by 30 points to capture another term in the US Senate, in the process carrying all 88 of Ohio's counties. It was a truly impressive, dominating showing. 

Since then, however, Sen. Voinovich as been relatively quiet. The sole noise he's made is refusing to rubber stamp W's selection of Josh Bolten John Bolton to be U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Other than that, there hasn't been any significant attention paid to the senator. Reaction within his own party was muted when Sen. Voinovich sensibly called for the GOP to impose a moratirum on new tax cuts until our budget deficit was resolved and a plan to repay our national debt put in place. When Sen. Voinovich used the "S"word -- socialist -- to refer to President-Elect Barack Obama, the McCain camp didn't exactly jump on the air with an ad stating "Hey Ohio, your own senator Voinovich says Obama's a socialist!"

My question now is, where does this leave Sen. Voinovich as campaign 2010 begins?  Sen. Voinovich will be 74 in 2010. Will the extreme right attempt to mount a primary challenge against him, given his reluctance to support George W. Bush's tax cuts, and lukewarm record on gun issues? Will he be spooked by the continued Democratic gains in Ohio over the last two years? Does he really want to serve another term in the U.S. Senate that wouldn't end until he is 80 years old?

It's worth noting that no GOP Senator from Ohio has been elected to three terms in a row since "Mr. Republican" Robert Taft, who was first elected in 1938, then re-elected in 1944 and 1950. Will the odds really be on Voinovich's side after two straight election cycles of Democratic gains? Then there comes the matter of Sen. Voinovich's opponents. Given that Ohio is likely to lose two Congressional seats in the 2010 reapportionment, it would seem that there would be a strong motivation for a couple of GOPers and Democrats alike to try and move up into the upper chamber. Should Voinovich retire, a GOPer like Steve LaTourette, whose seat would a prime target for elimination, would probably give serious consideration for a run. Likewise, a Dem like Zack Space, who seat would probably also be a prime target, might give it consideration. 

We'll be looking to read the tea leaves over the next 12 months, but this looks like one of the most interesting of contests to yours truly.