A *real* shock poll: McCain is up only by five in home state!!!!

Rasmussen shows a huge swing for Obama in McCain's home state:

McCain: 51% (59%)

Obama: 46% (38%)

That's a sixteen point swing in a month!  And it confirms last week's poll from a Democratic organization showing that McCain only lead by four points was not an outlier.

What's the basis of the swing?  Independent voters are largely breaking for Obama, just as they are everywhere else:

Voters in Arizona trust their state’s Senator more than Obama on the top issue of the economy by a 52% to 44% margin. However, voters not affiliated with either party trust Obama more, 52% to 39%.

On national security and the War on Terror, voters in Arizona trust McCain more by a 56% to 40% margin. Again, unaffiliated voters trust the Democrat more on this issue, 49% to 45%.

...

Arizona women now favor Obama 49% to 47% while McCain leads among men 55% to 42%. White voters favor McCain 56% to 42%, down from a 23-point lead in September. Hispanics support Obama 58% to 34%.

If McCain weren't the nominee, you'd probably see AZ join the purple states of CO, NM, and NV.  Many mocked Al Gore's inability to win his old home State of Tennessee in 2000, even though it had been eight years since he represented the State.

Anyone recall the last time a major party nominee lost their home state while the candidate still represented that State in an elected office?

This tells me there could be other potential red States that have been dismissed as non-battlegrounds that could provide the GOP some heartburn next Tuesday.

A poll by Arizona State University was in the field this week.  We'll see if it also shows McCain's home turf is weaking.  RealClearPolitics, which tends to run right-of-center, has already downgraded Arizona into the "Leaning McCain" category.  Another poll showing a four to five point lead will pull the average down to where it'll have to put it in the Toss Up category.

Stay tuned...